Yes
Implied probability 100%+4
24-hour volume$9k
Total volume$337k
Liquidity$337k
Resolves5 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 2 Nov, 07:25 UTC | 100% |
| 2 Nov, 01:32 UTC | 99% |
| 1 Nov, 23:07 UTC | 99% |
| 1 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 99% |
| 1 Nov, 21:12 UTC | 96% |
| 1 Nov, 19:52 UTC | 99% |
| 1 Nov, 19:16 UTC | 99% |
| 1 Nov, 17:35 UTC | 99% |
| 1 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 95% |
| 1 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 96% |
| 31 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 95% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 96% |
| 30 Oct, 22:07 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Oct, 20:51 UTC | 95% |
| 30 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 95% |
| 30 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 96% |
| 30 Oct, 05:14 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 96% |
| 30 Oct, 00:42 UTC | 99% |
| 29 Oct, 21:14 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 99% |
| 29 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Oct, 06:04 UTC | 99% |
| 29 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 99% |
| 28 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 99% |
| 27 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 96% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if California holds an official one-time billionaire tax ballot initiative before November 5, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake any proposed legislation or campaign activity for the required official ballot vote.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%