Documentary NAZA Tops Italian Box Office Over Avengers Encore
The Gaza war documentary NAZA debuts at number one in Italy, surpassing the Avengers: Endgame Encore screening.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 86% |
| 1 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Sept, 11:14 UTC | 85% |
| 25 Sept, 20:25 UTC | 84% |
| 23 Sept, 16:03 UTC | 83% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch NAZA respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 30 Sept 2026. Variety published first, on 30 September at 11:38 UTC; NME followed 22h 09m later. The most recent article, from Deadline, appeared on 2 October at 23:15 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Variety (major outlet), NME, Deadline.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- NAZA — the market puts it at 86%, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film NAZA is officially nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the theatrical release or streaming availability for a nomination.
- NAZA — the market puts it at 33%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The outcome is Yes if the film NAZA wins the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature at the 99th Academy Awards. The outcome is No if it does not win that specific award. Readers often mistake the streaming release on The Guardian for the resolution condition, but only the official Oscar result matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on NAZA at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Variety‘NAZA’ Beats ‘Avengers: Endgame Encore’ to Top Italian Box Office85%
- NMEThis documentary about Gaza is beating ‘Avengers Endgame: Encore’ at the box office86%▲1 points since the previous source
- DeadlineVenice Prize-Winner ‘NAZA’ Brings Explosive Gaza Exposé to U.S. Theaters – Specialty Preview86%
- Current odds86%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi NAZA 86%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi NAZA 33%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- NAZA
- Avengers: Endgame Encore
- Italian box office
- Venice Film Festival