Ben Affleck Warns Digger Flop Will Lead to Homogenized Movies
Ben Affleck warns that the negative reception of Tom Cruise's film Digger will cause studios to produce safer, homogenized content.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 26% |
| 19 Oct, 02:29 UTC | 25% |
| 18 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 26% |
| 18 Oct, 20:13 UTC | 30% |
| 18 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 24% |
| 18 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 27% |
| 18 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 21:52 UTC | 30% |
| 17 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 27% |
| 17 Oct, 19:04 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 13:09 UTC | 31% |
| 17 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 29% |
| 17 Oct, 01:37 UTC | 30% |
| 16 Oct, 18:45 UTC | 31% |
| 16 Oct, 13:17 UTC | 30% |
| 16 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 31% |
| 16 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 29% |
| 15 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 28% |
| 15 Oct, 14:57 UTC | 30% |
| 15 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 28% |
| 15 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 29% |
| 15 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 30% |
| 15 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 27% |
| 15 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 31% |
| 14 Oct, 23:21 UTC | 30% |
| 14 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 32% |
| 14 Oct, 06:49 UTC | 30% |
| 14 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 36% |
| 14 Oct, 02:35 UTC | 37% |
| 14 Oct, 00:07 UTC | 34% |
| 13 Oct, 23:53 UTC | 31% |
| 13 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Oct, 19:45 UTC | 34% |
| 13 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 36% |
| 13 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Oct, 16:33 UTC | 33% |
| 13 Oct, 16:11 UTC | 30% |
| 13 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 32% |
| 13 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 36% |
| 13 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 33% |
| 13 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 24% |
| 13 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 31% |
| 13 Oct, 04:48 UTC | 29% |
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| 13 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 24% |
| 13 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 26% |
| 12 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 23% |
| 12 Oct, 11:32 UTC | 22% |
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| 11 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 19% |
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| 10 Oct, 00:39 UTC | 19% |
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| 9 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 17% |
| 9 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 13% |
| 9 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 14% |
| 8 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 11% |
| 8 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 16% |
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| 8 Oct, 15:36 UTC | 14% |
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| 8 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 13% |
| 8 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 16% |
| 8 Oct, 03:08 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 13% |
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| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 13% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 25% |
| 6 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 9% |
| 6 Oct, 02:30 UTC | 13% |
| 5 Oct, 15:42 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Oct, 21:31 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 18:07 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 13% |
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| 3 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 12% |
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| 2 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 13% |
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| 2 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 18% |
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| 2 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 12% |
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| 2 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 15% |
| 1 Oct, 21:46 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 19:48 UTC | 12% |
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| 1 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Oct, 13:30 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 06:22 UTC | 13% |
| 30 Sept, 19:09 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 14:50 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Sept, 11:18 UTC | 17% |
| 30 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 17% |
| 30 Sept, 09:04 UTC | 19% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 18% |
| 30 Sept, 03:56 UTC | 20% |
| 30 Sept, 02:44 UTC | 19% |
| 30 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 17% |
| 29 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 18% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 17% |
| 29 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Sept, 17:25 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 16:39 UTC | 12% |
| 29 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 13% |
| 29 Sept, 08:34 UTC | 23% |
| 29 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 24% |
| 29 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 22% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Sept, 13:30 UTC | 20% |
| 28 Sept, 03:57 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Sept, 01:03 UTC | 24% |
| 27 Sept, 23:37 UTC | 18% |
| 27 Sept, 20:43 UTC | 23% |
| 27 Sept, 13:29 UTC | 25% |
| 27 Sept, 01:24 UTC | 26% |
| 26 Sept, 15:40 UTC | 27% |
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| 25 Sept, 23:29 UTC | 27% |
| 25 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 24% |
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| 25 Sept, 12:38 UTC | 26% |
| 25 Sept, 12:04 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 24% |
| 25 Sept, 08:46 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Sept, 05:43 UTC | 25% |
| 25 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Sept, 01:33 UTC | 26% |
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| 24 Sept, 23:59 UTC | 24% |
| 24 Sept, 21:10 UTC | 23% |
| 24 Sept, 20:10 UTC | 20% |
| 24 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 17% |
| 24 Sept, 05:05 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 03:46 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 03:07 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Sept, 20:13 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 17:11 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 16:27 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Sept, 15:37 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Sept, 14:27 UTC | 23% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Digger respond.
The story so far
9 publishers have covered this in 10 articles since 13 Oct 2026. WIRED published first, on 13 October at 22:08 UTC; National Review followed 22h 57m later. The most recent article, from The Guardian Culture, appeared on 17 October at 08:12 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: WIRED (major outlet), Variety Australia (major outlet), The Hollywood Reporter (major outlet), The Guardian Culture (major outlet), National Review, All Content from Business Insider, Consequence, Rolling Stone, NME.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Digger — the market puts it at 26%, with $437 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Digger receives a nomination for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the premiere date or critical reception for the resolution criteria, but only an official Oscar nomination counts.
- Digger — the market puts it at 27%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Digger receives a nomination for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if it does not receive that specific nomination. Readers often mistake the premiere date or critical reception for the resolution criteria, but only an official Oscar nomination counts.
- Digger — the market puts it at 51%, with $2 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Digger receives a nomination for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the premiere or critical reception for the resolution criteria, but only an official Oscar nomination counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Digger at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- WIREDEveryone Hates ‘Digger.’ It’s the Perfect Climate Movie35%
- National ReviewHow Hollywood’s Climate Disaster Movie Digger Bombed32%▼3 points since the previous source
- All Content from Business InsiderFor Alejandro González Iñárritu, the scariest part of making 'Digger' wasn't the climate catastrophe28%▼3 points since the previous source
- VarietyBen Affleck Says Bullying ‘Digger’ Will Only Lead Studios to Make More ‘S—ty Homogenized Movies’: Don’t ‘Punish Movies That Take Risks’30%▲2 points since the previous source
- ConsequenceNeil Young Says Digger Is “The Best Movie I Have Ever Seen”30%
- Rolling StoneNeil Young Praises ‘Digger’: ‘The Best Film I Have Ever Seen’28%▼2 points since the previous source
- Variety AustraliaBen Affleck Says Bullying ‘Digger’ Will Only Lead Studios to Make More ‘S—ty Homogenised Movies’: Don’t ‘Punish Movies That Take Risks’28%
- The Hollywood ReporterBen Affleck Warns ‘Digger’ Box Office Bomb Will Lead to “A Bunch of Sh***y Homogenized Movies”28%
- NMENeil Young: “‘Digger’ is the best film I have ever seen”29%▲1 points since the previous source
- The Guardian CultureThe Digger disaster: what an epic movie flop means for Tom Cruise and Hollywood29%
- Current odds26%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- The Digger disaster: what an epic movie flop means for Tom Cruise and Hollywood The Guardian Culture ·
- Ben Affleck Warns ‘Digger’ Box Office Bomb Will Lead to “A Bunch of Sh***y Homogenized Movies” The Hollywood Reporter ·
- Ben Affleck Says Bullying ‘Digger’ Will Only Lead Studios to Make More ‘S—ty Homogenised Movies’: Don’t ‘Punish Movies That Take Risks’ Variety Australia ·
- Ben Affleck Says Bullying ‘Digger’ Will Only Lead Studios to Make More ‘S—ty Homogenized Movies’: Don’t ‘Punish Movies That Take Risks’ Variety ·
- Everyone Hates ‘Digger.’ It’s the Perfect Climate Movie WIRED ·
- Neil Young: “‘Digger’ is the best film I have ever seen” NME
Show 4 more sources
- Neil Young Praises ‘Digger’: ‘The Best Film I Have Ever Seen’ Rolling Stone
- Neil Young Says Digger Is “The Best Movie I Have Ever Seen” Consequence
- For Alejandro González Iñárritu, the scariest part of making 'Digger' wasn't the climate catastrophe All Content from Business Insider
- How Hollywood’s Climate Disaster Movie Digger Bombed National Review
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Digger 26% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Digger 27%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Digger 51% +29
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
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In this story
- Tom Cruise
- Ben Affleck
- Neil Young
- Digger
- Alejandro González Iñárritu