Byron Donalds Elected Florida’s First Black Governor, Defeating David Jolly

The story so far

6 publishers have covered this in 7 articles since 4 Nov 2026. Fox News Politics published first, on 4 November at 01:20 UTC; Mother Jones followed 1h 46m later. The most recent article, from Inside Climate News, appeared on 6 November at 00:37 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), politico.com (major outlet), Fox News Politics, Mother Jones, BBC News, Inside Climate News.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Byron Donalds, 0-2% — the market puts it at 99%, with $724 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome "Yes" occurs if Byron Donalds wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election with a margin of victory between 0% and 2%. The outcome "No" applies if his margin is outside that range or if he does not win. Readers often mistakenly believe this market resolves based on the linked story about Schwartzel winning a House seat, but it strictly depends on Donalds' performance in the gubernatorial election.
• At least 48% — the market puts it at 2%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Byron Donalds receives at least 48% of the popular vote in Miami-Dade County for the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. The outcome depends on the certified vote count from that specific county, not the statewide result. Readers often mistake the deadline as Election Day rather than the date of official certification.
• Donalds, 3+ pts — the market puts it at 1%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Republican candidate wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by a margin of at least three percentage points. The outcome depends entirely on the official certified results of that specific state election. Readers often mistake the linked story about Byron Donalds for the actual resolution event, but the market does not resolve based on news reports or primary elections.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.