Donalds, 3+ pts
Implied probability 1%+1
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$248k
Liquidity$248k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 10:42 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 08:13 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Nov, 05:38 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 05:03 UTC | 0% |
| 6 Nov, 04:34 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 04:27 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 23:51 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 22:40 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 14:47 UTC | 0% |
| 5 Nov, 05:57 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 0% |
| 5 Nov, 03:51 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 02:17 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 01:28 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 00:30 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 00:23 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 23:54 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 23:11 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 22:27 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 16:13 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 11:32 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 09:07 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 51% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 49% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 52% |
| 3 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 44% |
| 3 Nov, 10:38 UTC | 43% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 46% |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 45% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 46% |
| 2 Nov, 19:18 UTC | 43% |
| 2 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 45% |
| 2 Nov, 17:04 UTC | 47% |
| 2 Nov, 06:35 UTC | 43% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 47% |
| 2 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 45% |
| 2 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 47% |
| 1 Nov, 22:10 UTC | 45% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 50% |
| 1 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 52% |
| 1 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 50% |
| 31 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 51% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 49% |
| 31 Oct, 15:15 UTC | 50% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 48% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 45% |
| 31 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 46% |
| 31 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 48% |
| 31 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 47% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 49% |
| 31 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 50% |
| 31 Oct, 03:24 UTC | 51% |
| 31 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 48% |
| 30 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 49% |
| 30 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 48% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican candidate wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by a margin of at least three percentage points. The outcome depends entirely on the official certified results of that specific state election. Readers often mistake the linked story about Byron Donalds for the actual resolution event, but the market does not resolve based on news reports or primary elections.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%