Byron Donalds, 0-2%
Implied probability 99%+5
24-hour volume$724
Total volume$25k
Liquidity$25k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 6 Nov, 04:27 UTC | 99% |
| 6 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 93% |
| 6 Nov, 01:45 UTC | 98% |
| 5 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 93% |
| 5 Nov, 17:35 UTC | 94% |
| 5 Nov, 15:49 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 23:04 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 22:27 UTC | 93% |
| 4 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 19:35 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 18:57 UTC | 84% |
| 4 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 93% |
| 4 Nov, 16:35 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 16:13 UTC | 77% |
| 4 Nov, 15:58 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 15:21 UTC | 61% |
| 4 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 12:02 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 09:57 UTC | 85% |
| 4 Nov, 08:38 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 04:03 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 03:41 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Nov, 23:34 UTC | 19% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome "Yes" occurs if Byron Donalds wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election with a margin of victory between 0% and 2%. The outcome "No" applies if his margin is outside that range or if he does not win. Readers often mistakenly believe this market resolves based on the linked story about Schwartzel winning a House seat, but it strictly depends on Donalds' performance in the gubernatorial election.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%