Wales beat ten-man Norway to end winless run under Bellamy
Neco Williams scores the winner as Wales defeat Norway in the Nations League, ending a long winless streak for Craig Bellamy's side.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 55% |
| 4 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 46% |
| 4 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 48% |
| 4 Oct, 18:07 UTC | 49% |
| 4 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Oct, 10:07 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 05:30 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 49% |
| 4 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 49% |
| 4 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 49% |
| 3 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 49% |
| 3 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 48% |
| 2 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 49% |
| 2 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 48% |
| 2 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 50% |
| 2 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 49% |
| 2 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 50% |
| 1 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 51% |
| 1 Oct, 19:48 UTC | 53% |
| 1 Oct, 17:22 UTC | 55% |
| 1 Oct, 16:14 UTC | 54% |
| 30 Sept, 21:39 UTC | 55% |
| 29 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 56% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Denmark respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 9 articles since 30 Sept 2026. The Guardian Sport published first, on 30 September at 17:11 UTC; SkySports followed 27h 57m later. The most recent article, from BBC Sport, appeared on 4 October at 22:36 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Sport (major outlet), SkySports, BBC Sport.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Denmark — resolved “Yes” on 4 Oct 2026. Denmark wins the Wales vs Denmark professional UEFA Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Will Denmark win on 2026-10-04? — resolved “Yes” on 4 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Denmark wins the match scheduled for October 4, 2026, based only on the result within regular time and stoppage. It resolves to No if Denmark does not win or if the game is canceled without a make-up match. Readers often mistake the deadline for resolution, which depends on the availability of official statistics from the governing body rather than a fixed clock after the game ends.
- Norway — the market puts it at 2%, closing 15 Aug 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Norway wins the 2028 UEFA European Championship. It resolves to No if they do not win that specific tournament. Readers often mistake this for a prediction of their performance in other competitions or the current Nations League match.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Denmark at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The Guardian SportCraig Bellamy urges Wales improvement but wary of Norway’s threat56%
- The Guardian SportWales v Norway, Denmark v Portugal, Germany v Serbia: Nations League – live55%▼1 points since the previous source
- The Guardian SportNeco Williams fires revitalised Wales to fightback win against 10-man Norway53%▼2 points since the previous source
- SkySportsBellamy gets perfect response as Wales beat 10-man Norway53%
- BBC SportBellamy says Wales 'stick' hurt as Norway win lifts mood51%▼2 points since the previous source
- BBC SportWas long-awaited win a turning point for Craig Bellamy?51%
- BBC SportGroup has 'exploded' after Wales win - Bellamy48%▼3 points since the previous source
- The Guardian SportDenmark sink Wales as Rasmus Højlund makes Danny Ward pay for blunder55%▲7 points since the previous source
- BBC SportBellamy bemoans new schedule after Denmark loss92%▲38 points since the previous source
- Market resolved: Yes
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Denmark sink Wales as Rasmus Højlund makes Danny Ward pay for blunder The Guardian Sport ·
- Neco Williams fires revitalised Wales to fightback win against 10-man Norway The Guardian Sport ·
- Wales v Norway, Denmark v Portugal, Germany v Serbia: Nations League – live The Guardian Sport ·
- Craig Bellamy urges Wales improvement but wary of Norway’s threat The Guardian Sport ·
- Bellamy bemoans new schedule after Denmark loss BBC Sport
- Group has 'exploded' after Wales win - Bellamy BBC Sport
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Denmark Yes 33d ago
The market favoured No at 51% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will Denmark win on 2026-10-04? Yes 33d ago
The market favoured No at 52% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Norway 2%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
In this story
- Wales
- Norway
- Craig Bellamy
- Neco Williams
- Erling Haaland