Denmark
The market favoured No at 51% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$480k
Total volume$487k
Liquidity$487k
Resolved6 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 55% |
| 4 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 46% |
| 4 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 48% |
| 4 Oct, 18:07 UTC | 49% |
| 4 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Oct, 10:07 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 05:30 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 49% |
| 4 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 49% |
| 4 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 49% |
| 3 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 49% |
| 3 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 48% |
| 2 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 49% |
| 2 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 48% |
| 2 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 50% |
| 2 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 49% |
| 2 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 50% |
| 1 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 51% |
| 1 Oct, 19:48 UTC | 53% |
| 1 Oct, 17:22 UTC | 55% |
| 1 Oct, 16:14 UTC | 54% |
| 30 Sept, 21:39 UTC | 55% |
What counts
Denmark wins the Wales vs Denmark professional UEFA Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%