Will Denmark win on 2026-10-04?
The market favoured No at 52% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$205k
Total volume$214k
Liquidity$210k
Resolved4 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 45% |
| 4 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 48% |
| 4 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 48% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 49% |
| 4 Oct, 15:12 UTC | 49% |
| 4 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 49% |
| 4 Oct, 00:15 UTC | 50% |
| 2 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 49% |
| 2 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 49% |
| 2 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 50% |
| 2 Oct, 15:37 UTC | 49% |
| 1 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 50% |
| 1 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 52% |
| 30 Sept, 21:16 UTC | 54% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Denmark wins the match scheduled for October 4, 2026, based only on the result within regular time and stoppage. It resolves to No if Denmark does not win or if the game is canceled without a make-up match. Readers often mistake the deadline for resolution, which depends on the availability of official statistics from the governing body rather than a fixed clock after the game ends.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →