Bank of Canada Rate Hike Bets Fade After Worst Job Loss Since 2020
Investors reduce expectations for interest rate increases following the worst year-to-date job losses since 2020.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 28 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Oct, 03:36 UTC | 89% |
| 26 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 91% |
| 26 Oct, 01:12 UTC | 94% |
| 25 Oct, 02:35 UTC | 91% |
| 23 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 94% |
| 22 Oct, 23:13 UTC | 93% |
| 22 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 94% |
| 21 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 91% |
| 21 Oct, 01:24 UTC | 89% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 87% |
| 13 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 70% |
| 13 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 71% |
| 12 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 72% |
| 12 Oct, 17:43 UTC | 73% |
| 12 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 73% |
| 11 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 78% |
| 9 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 75% |
| 7 Oct, 21:51 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 80% |
| 30 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 81% |
| 29 Sept, 16:31 UTC | 82% |
| 28 Sept, 15:39 UTC | 87% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 9 Oct 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 9 October at 21:55 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Bank of Canada — resolved “Yes” on 29 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if the Bank of Canada raises its overnight rate target and this action is confirmed by the relevant source agency before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if this specific confirmation does not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake any general discussion of interest rates for an actual rate hike or ignore the requirement for official confirmation.
- Exactly 2.25% — the market puts it at 1%, with $677 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Bank of Canada's overnight rate target is exactly 2.25% on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No.
- Exactly 0ㅤ — the market puts it at 95%, with $37 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if there are zero Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026. It resolves to No if there is one or more rate cuts during that year. Readers often mistake the linked news story about current job losses for the actual resolution criteria, which depends solely on future rate cut counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Bank of Canada Yes 9d ago
The market favoured Yes at 89% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Exactly 2.25% 1% −7
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Exactly 0ㅤ 95% +4
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
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In this story
- Bank of Canada
- Aritzia