Bank of Canada
Why it moved: +7 points at 13:57 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: Former Fed President Harker Says Policy Is Not Restrictive — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 28 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Oct, 03:36 UTC | 89% |
| 26 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 91% |
| 26 Oct, 01:12 UTC | 94% |
| 25 Oct, 02:35 UTC | 91% |
| 23 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 94% |
| 22 Oct, 23:13 UTC | 93% |
| 22 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 94% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Bank of Canada raises its overnight rate target and this action is confirmed by the relevant source agency before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if this specific confirmation does not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake any general discussion of interest rates for an actual rate hike or ignore the requirement for official confirmation.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%