Amazon Shares Slide After Q3 Earnings Miss Forecasts on High AI Spending
Amazon shares fell after third-quarter results missed expectations due to cautious holiday guidance and high capital expenditure, despite strong AWS growth.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by News Feed, 1 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 00:49 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 18% |
| 29 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 18% |
| 29 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 44% |
| 29 Oct, 21:14 UTC | 87% |
| 29 Oct, 20:46 UTC | 80% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 79% |
| 29 Oct, 19:15 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 88% |
| 29 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 88% |
| 29 Oct, 01:38 UTC | 93% |
| 26 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 92% |
| 24 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 86% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 89% |
| 21 Oct, 06:30 UTC | 85% |
| 21 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 86% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 89% |
| 13 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 93% |
| 10 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 85% |
| 6 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 77% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Alexa+ / Alexa Plus respond.
The story so far
7 publishers have covered this in 9 articles since 29 Oct 2026. News Feed published first, on 29 October at 20:25 UTC; Deadline followed 2 min later. The most recent article, from Variety, appeared on 30 October at 15:31 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), Bloomberg Technology (major outlet), The Guardian Business (major outlet), Variety (major outlet), Deadline, theinformation.com, MarketWatch.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Alexa+ / Alexa Plus — resolved “No” on 30 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if an Amazon representative mentions Alexa+ or Alexa Plus during the upcoming earnings call, including the question-and-answer session. It resolves to No if this specific term is not used by any representative in that setting. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a bug as the resolution criteria, but only the official mention during the earnings call matters.
- Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.50T at the end of 2026? — the market puts it at 36%, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves based on Amazon's total public market capitalization calculated at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026. A "Yes" outcome requires this value to fall between $2.00 trillion and $2.50 trillion, while a "No" outcome occurs if it falls outside that range.
- Above 1.6 million — resolved “Yes” on 30 Oct 2026.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Alexa+ / Alexa Plus at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- News FeedAmazon shares slide on lower Christmas sales forecast79%
- DeadlineAmazon Shares Fall After Q3 Results Miss Wall Street Forecasts As Big Tech Market Rout Continues79%
- Bloomberg TechnologyNo One Wanted These Amazon Earnings, Thill Says79%
- theinformation.comAmazon Web Services Accelerates as Ecommerce Store Slows on Prime Day Change80%▲1 points since the previous source
- The Guardian BusinessAmazon gives Wall Street mixed financial picture in earnings report87%▲6 points since the previous source
- MarketWatchAmazon’s bold cloud forecast isn’t enough to stave off a stock drop15%▼71 points since the previous source
- Bloomberg TechnologyTech Stocks Poised to Drop After Amazon Adds to AI Spending Fear1%▼14 points since the previous source
- MarketWatchHere’s the math on Amazon CEO’s claim to be on path to two trillion-dollar revenue businesses1%
- VarietyAmazon CEO Says Prime Video Is Profitable and Generates ‘Tens of Billions of Dollars’ Annually; Content Spending Grew 7% in Q3 to $5.9 Billion4%▲3 points since the previous source
- Market resolved: No
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Amazon CEO Says Prime Video Is Profitable and Generates ‘Tens of Billions of Dollars’ Annually; Content Spending Grew 7% in Q3 to $5.9 Billion Variety ·
- Tech Stocks Poised to Drop After Amazon Adds to AI Spending Fear Bloomberg Technology ·
- Amazon gives Wall Street mixed financial picture in earnings report The Guardian Business ·
- No One Wanted These Amazon Earnings, Thill Says Bloomberg Technology ·
- Amazon shares slide on lower Christmas sales forecast News Feed ·
- Here’s the math on Amazon CEO’s claim to be on path to two trillion-dollar revenue businesses MarketWatch
Show 3 more sources
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Alexa+ / Alexa Plus No 8d ago
The market favoured Yes at 85% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.50T at the end of 2026? 36% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Above 1.6 million Yes 8d ago
The market favoured Yes at 86% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
Have your say
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In this story
- Amazon
- Andy Jassy
- Brent Thill
- Jefferies
- Wall Street