Alexa+ / Alexa Plus
The market favoured Yes at 85% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 4%
24-hour volume$41k
Total volume$46k
Liquidity$46k
Resolved31 Mar 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 00:49 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 18% |
| 29 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 18% |
| 29 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 44% |
| 29 Oct, 21:14 UTC | 87% |
| 29 Oct, 20:46 UTC | 80% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 79% |
| 29 Oct, 19:15 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 88% |
| 29 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 88% |
| 29 Oct, 01:38 UTC | 93% |
| 26 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 92% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if an Amazon representative mentions Alexa+ or Alexa Plus during the upcoming earnings call, including the question-and-answer session. It resolves to No if this specific term is not used by any representative in that setting. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a bug as the resolution criteria, but only the official mention during the earnings call matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%