Alito Says Election Win Won't Change Plans to Stay on Supreme Court Hot: Odds moved 15 points in 24 hours
Justice Samuel Alito told an associate that the recent Democratic electoral victory does not alter his intention to remain on the bench.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 44% |
| 5 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 44% |
| 5 Nov, 14:32 UTC | 68% |
| 5 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 44% |
| 5 Nov, 02:54 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Nov, 18:50 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Nov, 15:06 UTC | 55% |
| 4 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 57% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 04:29 UTC | 63% |
| 1 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 57% |
| 30 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 58% |
| 30 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 60% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 5 Nov 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 5 November at 01:19 UTC; Fox News Politics followed 14h 15m later. The most recent article, from Fox News Politics, appeared on 5 November at 15:34 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg.com (major outlet), Fox News Politics.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Samuel Alito — the market puts it at 44%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Justice Samuel Alito resigns or announces his intent to resign from the Supreme Court before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake recusal for resignation; only actual resignation or an announcement of intent to resign counts toward the Yes outcome.
- Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 7%, with $23k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Justice Samuel Alito officially retires from the Supreme Court before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake news reports of his retirement considerations for an actual resignation.
- Not nine justices — the market puts it at 18%, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the Supreme Court has an equal number of justices appointed by Republican and Democratic presidents on January 20, 2029. It resolves to No if that balance is not achieved by that date. Readers often mistake the resolution date for the start of the new term rather than the specific deadline of January 20, 2029.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Samuel Alito 44% −15
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 7% −9
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Not nine justices 18%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Samuel Alito
- Supreme Court