Samuel Alito
Why it moved: +6 points at 17:27 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: US prosecutor who led Trump-backed election probe exits Justice Department — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 51% |
| 6 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Nov, 23:58 UTC | 45% |
| 5 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 44% |
| 5 Nov, 14:32 UTC | 68% |
| 5 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 44% |
| 5 Nov, 02:54 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Nov, 18:50 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Nov, 15:06 UTC | 55% |
| 4 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 57% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 04:29 UTC | 63% |
| 1 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 57% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Justice Samuel Alito resigns or announces his intent to resign from the Supreme Court before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake recusal for resignation; only actual resignation or an announcement of intent to resign counts toward the Yes outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 51%
- No 49%