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Wisconsin House Races Feature Rematches and Open Seats Ahead of Tuesday Vote

Voters in Wisconsin decide key House seats, including a rematch between Derrick Van Orden and Rebecca Cooke, as polls indicate tight contests.

2 publishers · 3 articles · first seen 3 Nov 2026 · updated 3d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
0%50%100%100%21 Sept, 22:53 UTCnowThe Hill: Cooke unseats incumbent Van Orden in Wisconsin House rematch · 4 Nov, 06:07 UTCCBS News Politics: Rep. Derrick Van Orden ousted in Wisconsin rematch · 4 Nov, 06:04 UTCThe Hill: Wisconsin live results: 2026 House elections · 3 Nov, 17:00 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
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The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 3 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 3 November at 17:00 UTC; CBS News Politics followed 13h 05m later. The most recent article, from The Hill, appeared on 4 November at 06:07 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet).

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. The No outcome applies if any other candidate wins. Readers often mistake the linked story about small businesses for a factor in the result, but the market resolves solely based on the official election winner as called by the Associated Press, Fox News, or NBC.
  • Will the Democratic Party win the WI-03 House seat? — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if a Democrat wins the Wisconsin third congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm election. The No outcome applies if any other candidate wins that seat. Readers often mistake the election day of November 3, 2026, for the resolution date, but the market resolves only after credible reporting establishes a consensus or official Federal Election Commission results confirm the winner.
  • Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. Yes resolves if Democrats hold a majority of voting seats in the House after the 2026 midterms, or if they win the Speaker election in a tied chamber. No resolves if Republicans hold that majority or win the Speaker election. Readers often mistake early polling data for the final result instead of waiting for the official certification of elected seats.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. The HillWisconsin live results: 2026 House elections88%
  2. CBS News PoliticsRep. Derrick Van Orden ousted in Wisconsin rematch99%▲12 points since the previous source
  3. The HillCooke unseats incumbent Van Orden in Wisconsin House rematch99%
  4. Market resolved: Yes

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Cooke unseats incumbent Van Orden in Wisconsin House rematch The Hill ·
  2. Rep. Derrick Van Orden ousted in Wisconsin rematch CBS News Politics ·
  3. Wisconsin live results: 2026 House elections The Hill ·

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Resolved Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? Yes 3d ago

    The market favoured Yes at 86% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Will the Democratic Party win the WI-03 House seat? Yes 3d ago

    The market favoured Yes at 89% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 3d ago
    Wrong market?

In this story

  • Derrick Van Orden
  • Rebecca Cooke
  • Tom Tiffany
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