Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$12.0M
Total volume$37.4M
Liquidity$5.2M
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 02:41 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 01:05 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 97% |
| 2 Nov, 22:02 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 96% |
| 31 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 94% |
| 31 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 94% |
What counts
Yes resolves if Democrats hold a majority of voting seats in the House after the 2026 midterms, or if they win the Speaker election in a tied chamber. No resolves if Republicans hold that majority or win the Speaker election. Readers often mistake early polling data for the final result instead of waiting for the official certification of elected seats.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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