US Urges Venezuela to Release Political Prisoners and Hold Elections

The story so far

5 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 1 Nov 2026. National Review published first, on 1 November at 11:30 UTC; Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera followed 38h 57m later. The most recent article, from Bloomberg Markets, appeared on 3 November at 22:08 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), National Review, BBC News.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 4%, with $52 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Venezuela’s National Electoral Council formally calls a presidential election before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if no such formal call occurs by that date. Readers often mistake news reports of opposition plans or exile returns for an official electoral decision.
• Venezuela — the market puts it at 3%, with $240 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if any part of Venezuela becomes the 51st U.S. state before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about oil deals for a relevant event, but only statehood matters.
• Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — the market puts it at 0%, with $5k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET. It resolves to No if he does not hold that specific title by that deadline. Readers often mistake a nomination or appointment for actual leadership, but only confirmed, sworn-in officials count.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.