US Inflation Rises to 3.7% as Producer Prices Surge
September consumer price inflation reached 3.7 percent while producer prices jumped 1.3 percent, marking the fastest growth in over four years due to rising energy costs.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 18 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 17% |
| 18 Oct, 04:50 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Oct, 04:36 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Oct, 06:08 UTC | 20% |
| 15 Oct, 14:43 UTC | 20% |
| 15 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 17% |
| 14 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 18% |
| 29 Sept, 22:30 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 22% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Sept, 13:27 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 27% |
| 28 Sept, 12:40 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 25% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 23% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch At least 4.5% respond.
The story so far
15 publishers have covered this in 48 articles since 12 Oct 2026. Times of India published first, on 12 October at 11:20 UTC; The Guardian followed 21h 00m later. The most recent article, from The Hill, appeared on 17 October at 21:00 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), Times of India, Quartz, Hacker News, BBC Business, Fortune and 3 more, all listed under Sources below.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- At least 4.5% — the market puts it at 20%, with $45 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 14 Feb 2027. The market resolves to Yes if year-over-year CPI inflation reaches at least 4.5% in any single month during 2026. It resolves to No if that threshold is never met throughout the entire year. Readers often mistake the current September rate of 3.7% as decisive, but only data from 2026 counts toward the final outcome.
- Exactly 2 — the market puts it at 65%, with $105 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if there are exactly two rate changes before 2027. It resolves to No if that count is not two. Readers often mistake the linked headline about bond yields for the actual event, but only official rate changes count toward the total.
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? — the market puts it at 2%, closing 9 Dec 2026. Yes resolves if the Fed makes a different decision (cut, hike, or pause) in all three upcoming FOMC meetings compared to their previous decisions. No resolves if the Fed makes the same decision in all three upcoming FOMC meetings as they did previously.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on At least 4.5% at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Times of IndiaRetail inflation at almost 2-year high at 5.54%, driven by food prices surge26%
- Times of IndiaAt 5.5%, retail inflation hits 9-month high on food prices26%
- The GuardianUK shoppers seek deals as grocery price inflation rises again26%
- QuartzEconomists expect September CPI to show accelerating inflation as energy costs surge26%
- News FeedUS grocery prices poised to climb as soaring fuel costs drive inflation26%
- QuartzU.S. inflation is expected to surge in September as gasoline prices jumped 7%26%
- News FeedUS inflation jumps to 3.7% as Iran war drives up prices26%
- The GuardianUS inflation rose to 3.7% in September, figures show26%
- Just In NewsInflation rose to 3.7 percent in September: BLS26%
- Hacker NewsCPI-U rises 7.2% annualized in September (3.7% YoY)26%
Show 38 later sources
- BBC BusinessUS inflation rises more than expected ahead of midterm elections26%
- The Hill NewsLive updates: Inflation rises in September; Trump jets to Arizona, Montana26%
- Bloomberg MarketsUS Consumer Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in Five Months26%
- AxiosInflation heats up as gas prices surge26%
- QuartzGasoline rose 9.1% in a month, and the inflation report shows it26%
- News FeedHot September CPI inflation keeps Fed on course for further tightening18%▼8 points since the previous source
- The New York TimesGas Costs a Third More Than a Year Ago18%
- The New York TimesRising Costs Push Necessities Out of Reach for Nearly Half of Americans18%
- FortuneInflation runs hotter than expected at 3.7% in September, the last CPI report before the midterms18%
- The New York TimesHigher Energy Prices Lift U.S. Inflation Ahead of Midterm Elections18%
- Times of IndiaIndia's WPI inflation surges to 11.39% in September on higher food, fuel prices18%
- BBC Business'It's rough out here': Americans struggle with rising inflation18%
- AxiosNew inflation warning sign18%
- The HillInflation report delivers more bad news to GOP18%
- Bloomberg TechnologyInflation Rises as Fuel Costs Surge18%
- MarketWatch3 things that are driving inflation higher18%
- Just In NewsTrump adviser sees 'a whole bunch of good news' in inflation report18%
- Bloomberg.comBalance of Power: US Prices Rise Most Since April (Podcast)18%
- The HillAs inflation rises, more than 40 percent say they struggle to pay for basic necessities: Pew18%
- The HillHot inflation data puts Fed in complicated spot18%
- News FeedFed’s October Beige Book points to higher inflation18%
- The HillInflation rose slightly in September18%
- CBS News Politics10/14: The Takeout with Major Garrett18%
- Bloomberg MarketsWhy Inflation Numbers Are Disappointing18%
- Bloomberg.comUS Inflation Rises Most in Five Months: Evening Briefing Americas18%
- CBS News PoliticsTrump insists inflation is low as CPI report shows a 3.7% increase18%
- News FeedRising inflation piles pressure on US voters ahead of midterm elections17%▼1 points since the previous source
- QuartzU.S. retail sales rose 0.8% in September, boosted by gasoline station spending17%
- QuartzProducer prices rose 1.3% in September, the largest monthly gain since March 202217%
- The HillProducer prices see largest rise in four years: BLS17%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesUS consumer inflation hotter than expected as midterms loom20%▲3 points since the previous source
- Bloomberg MarketsUS Producer Prices Up Most Since 2022 as Energy Pain Worsens20%
- AxiosThe too-hot-for-comfort economy20%
- Bloomberg MarketsInflation Pointing for the Fed to Act: Rajappa20%
- News Feed‘Early days’ to see full effect of energy prices on inflation, BoE’s Bailey says20%
- All Content from Business InsiderIf you've gotten a raise in the past two years, it's now been nearly all eaten away by inflation20%
- News Feed‘Inflation will make people poor’: Airlines brace for years of pain20%
- The HillConcerning economic data pose issues for GOP down midterm stretch23%▲3 points since the previous source
- Current odds20%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Concerning economic data pose issues for GOP down midterm stretch The Hill ·
- ‘Inflation will make people poor’: Airlines brace for years of pain News Feed ·
- ‘Early days’ to see full effect of energy prices on inflation, BoE’s Bailey says News Feed ·
- Inflation Pointing for the Fed to Act: Rajappa Bloomberg Markets ·
- The too-hot-for-comfort economy Axios ·
- US Producer Prices Up Most Since 2022 as Energy Pain Worsens Bloomberg Markets ·
Show 42 more sources
- Producer prices see largest rise in four years: BLS The Hill ·
- Rising inflation piles pressure on US voters ahead of midterm elections News Feed ·
- Trump insists inflation is low as CPI report shows a 3.7% increase CBS News Politics ·
- US Inflation Rises Most in Five Months: Evening Briefing Americas Bloomberg.com ·
- Why Inflation Numbers Are Disappointing Bloomberg Markets ·
- 10/14: The Takeout with Major Garrett CBS News Politics ·
- Inflation rose slightly in September The Hill ·
- Fed’s October Beige Book points to higher inflation News Feed ·
- Hot inflation data puts Fed in complicated spot The Hill ·
- As inflation rises, more than 40 percent say they struggle to pay for basic necessities: Pew The Hill ·
- Balance of Power: US Prices Rise Most Since April (Podcast) Bloomberg.com ·
- Trump adviser sees 'a whole bunch of good news' in inflation report Just In News ·
- Inflation Rises as Fuel Costs Surge Bloomberg Technology ·
- Inflation report delivers more bad news to GOP The Hill ·
- New inflation warning sign Axios ·
- Higher Energy Prices Lift U.S. Inflation Ahead of Midterm Elections The New York Times ·
- Rising Costs Push Necessities Out of Reach for Nearly Half of Americans The New York Times ·
- Gas Costs a Third More Than a Year Ago The New York Times ·
- Hot September CPI inflation keeps Fed on course for further tightening News Feed ·
- Inflation heats up as gas prices surge Axios ·
- US Consumer Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in Five Months Bloomberg Markets ·
- Live updates: Inflation rises in September; Trump jets to Arizona, Montana The Hill News ·
- Inflation rose to 3.7 percent in September: BLS Just In News ·
- US inflation rose to 3.7% in September, figures show The Guardian ·
- US inflation jumps to 3.7% as Iran war drives up prices News Feed ·
- US grocery prices poised to climb as soaring fuel costs drive inflation News Feed ·
- UK shoppers seek deals as grocery price inflation rises again The Guardian ·
- If you've gotten a raise in the past two years, it's now been nearly all eaten away by inflation All Content from Business Insider
- US consumer inflation hotter than expected as midterms loom France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Producer prices rose 1.3% in September, the largest monthly gain since March 2022 Quartz
- U.S. retail sales rose 0.8% in September, boosted by gasoline station spending Quartz
- 3 things that are driving inflation higher MarketWatch
- 'It's rough out here': Americans struggle with rising inflation BBC Business
- India's WPI inflation surges to 11.39% in September on higher food, fuel prices Times of India
- Inflation runs hotter than expected at 3.7% in September, the last CPI report before the midterms Fortune
- Gasoline rose 9.1% in a month, and the inflation report shows it Quartz
- US inflation rises more than expected ahead of midterm elections BBC Business
- U.S. inflation is expected to surge in September as gasoline prices jumped 7% Quartz
- Economists expect September CPI to show accelerating inflation as energy costs surge Quartz
- At 5.5%, retail inflation hits 9-month high on food prices Times of India
- Retail inflation at almost 2-year high at 5.54%, driven by food prices surge Times of India
- CPI-U rises 7.2% annualized in September (3.7% YoY) Hacker News
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi At least 4.5% 20% +3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Exactly 2 65% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? 2%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
In this story
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Fed
- Société Générale Americas
- Columbia Threadneedle Investments
- Wolfe Research