US Consumer Sentiment Slips to Five-Month Low as UK Confidence Plunges
US consumer sentiment hit a five-month low while UK confidence fell sharply ahead of the budget announcement.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by News Feed, 4h 59m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 16% |
| 25 Sept, 19:39 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 17:39 UTC | 15% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Yes respond.
The story so far
6 publishers have covered this in 11 articles since 22 Oct 2026. News Feed published first, on 22 October at 23:01 UTC; The Guardian followed 4h 59m later. The most recent article, from Times of India, appeared on 24 October at 06:45 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), The Hill News (major outlet), Quartz, Times of India.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Yes — the market puts it at 16%, closing 18 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if any final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released in 2026 exceeds 65.0. It resolves to No if no such release occurs during that year. Readers often mistake preliminary estimates for the required final data.
- Above 0.4% — the market puts it at 69%, closing 18 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if South Africa's month-over-month inflation rate for October 2026 exceeds 0.4%. The outcome is No if that rate is 0.4% or lower. Readers often mistake the linked US consumer sentiment headline for the actual data source, but only the official South African inflation figure determines the result.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Yes at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- News Feed‘Relentless’ cost of living pressures behind collapse in UK consumer confidence16%
- The GuardianUK consumer confidence falls at fastest rate since Covid as cost of living bites16%
- Bloomberg MarketsUK Retail Sales Fall, Consumer Confidence Worst Since Covid16%
- The Guardian BusinessGlobal stocks wobble as AI fears grow; retail sales in Great Britain fall in September as shoppers cut back - business live16%
- The GuardianRetail sales in Great Britain fall as struggling households cut back16%
- Bloomberg MarketsUS Consumer Sentiment Slips to Five-Month Low on Inflation Woes16%
- The Hill NewsConsumer confidence holds steady from September amid persistent inflation16%
- Bloomberg.comUK Economy Storms Ahead for Now, Despite Sodden Consumers16%
- Bloomberg MarketsUS Consumer Sentiment Slips to Five-Month Low on Inflation16%
- QuartzConsumer sentiment has fallen to a five-month low on inflation fears16%
- Times of IndiaFrom fuel price hikes to cost-of-living concerns, US consumer sentiment nears record low16%
- Current odds16%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- US Consumer Sentiment Slips to Five-Month Low on Inflation Bloomberg Markets ·
- UK Economy Storms Ahead for Now, Despite Sodden Consumers Bloomberg.com ·
- Consumer confidence holds steady from September amid persistent inflation The Hill News ·
- US Consumer Sentiment Slips to Five-Month Low on Inflation Woes Bloomberg Markets ·
- Retail sales in Great Britain fall as struggling households cut back The Guardian ·
- Global stocks wobble as AI fears grow; retail sales in Great Britain fall in September as shoppers cut back - business live The Guardian Business ·
Show 5 more sources
- UK Retail Sales Fall, Consumer Confidence Worst Since Covid Bloomberg Markets ·
- UK consumer confidence falls at fastest rate since Covid as cost of living bites The Guardian ·
- ‘Relentless’ cost of living pressures behind collapse in UK consumer confidence News Feed ·
- From fuel price hikes to cost-of-living concerns, US consumer sentiment nears record low Times of India
- Consumer sentiment has fallen to a five-month low on inflation fears Quartz
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Yes 16%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Above 0.4% 69%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- University of Michigan
- Conference Board
- John Healey
- Office for National Statistics