Turkey to Hand Over Bashiqa Base in Northern Iraq to Baghdad

The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 23 Sept 2026. South China Morning Post published first, on 23 September at 22:59 UTC; France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines followed 1h 03m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 25 September at 19:06 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet), South China Morning Post, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines.

2 prediction markets price this story:

• Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? — the market puts it at 12%, with $321 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Israeli and Turkish forces engage in direct combat, such as missile strikes or gunfire, by December 31, 2026. The outcome is No if no such violent encounter occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake non-violent incidents like warning shots or minor ship damage for a qualifying military clash.
• Iraq — the market puts it at 1%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a level 3 or lower travel advisory for Iraq before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if no such advisory action occurs by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Turkey as the deciding factor, but only official U.S. State Department travel advisories count.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.