Trump Stalls UK Plan to Hand Over Chagos Islands to Mauritius
US opposition has stalled a $4.5 billion agreement transferring sovereignty over the Chagos Islands, prompting Britain and Mauritius to seek a diplomatic breakthrough at the UN.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 14:39 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 08:52 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 18:56 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 17:55 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 17:09 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 08:08 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 19:14 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 06:28 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 02:05 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 01:59 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 01:21 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 21:19 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 20:20 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 18:15 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 17:36 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 17:05 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 00:59 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 18:05 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 17:43 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 16:43 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 06:10 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 00:38 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 00:07 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Sept, 22:05 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Sept, 20:39 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Sept, 18:32 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Sept, 06:25 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Sept, 05:06 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Sept, 00:48 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Sept, 08:53 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Sept, 08:19 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Sept, 11:02 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Sept, 04:33 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Sept, 06:38 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 3% |
| 14 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 3% |
| 14 Sept, 09:18 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 3% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? respond.
The story so far
4 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 22 Sept 2026. businessinsider.com published first, on 22 September at 06:44 UTC; Bloomberg.com followed 6h 31m later. The most recent article, from ABC News, appeared on 23 September at 15:12 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg.com (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet), businessinsider.com.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? — the market puts it at 3%, with $6k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The Yes outcome requires an official announcement by the United States and Denmark that Greenland transfers to US sovereignty before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This transfer must involve the majority of Greenland's territory coming under formal US governance or jurisdiction.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- businessinsider.comTrump stalls Britain’s $4.5 billion Chagos handover as Mauritius seeks UNGA breakthrough3%
- Bloomberg.comNext Africa: Trump’s Aversion to UK Island Handover Puts Burnham in a Fix3%
- News FeedUK reviews Chagos deal after fresh opposition from Trump3%
- ABC NewsWhat to know about the deal by Britain to surrender the Chagos Islands3%
- Current odds3%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- What to know about the deal by Britain to surrender the Chagos Islands ABC News ·
- UK reviews Chagos deal after fresh opposition from Trump News Feed ·
- Next Africa: Trump’s Aversion to UK Island Handover Puts Burnham in a Fix Bloomberg.com ·
- Trump stalls Britain’s $4.5 billion Chagos handover as Mauritius seeks UNGA breakthrough businessinsider.com
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? 3%
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In this story
- Donald Trump
- Mauritius
- Chagos Islands
- United Nations General Assembly