Trump's Economy Boasts Fall Flat as Voters Face High Inflation
Voters reject Donald Trump's claim of the 'greatest economy in history' amid rising inflation and gas prices linked to his tariffs and conflict with Iran.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 36% |
| 30 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 36% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 36% |
| 29 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 36% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 30% |
| 28 Sept, 11:17 UTC | 30% |
| 27 Sept, 19:13 UTC | 35% |
| 27 Sept, 04:11 UTC | 30% |
| 25 Sept, 19:03 UTC | 31% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 33% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 38% |
| 22 Sept, 11:52 UTC | 33% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 28 Sept 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 28 September at 11:00 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Above 5% — the market puts it at 36%, with $399 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 26 Jan 2029. The market resolves to "Yes" if any quarter between Q1 2025 and Q4 2028 shows GDP growth exceeding 5%. It resolves to "No" if no such quarter occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about stock markets for the relevant data source, but only official GDP figures determine the outcome.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
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- Kalshi Above 5% 36% +6
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In this story
- Donald Trump
- Joe Biden