Above 5%
Why it moved: −4 points at 00:51 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: Upbeat Earnings Bolster Case for India Stocks as Asia Wavers — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 00:51 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Nov, 01:54 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Nov, 00:19 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Nov, 10:06 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Nov, 02:15 UTC | 31% |
| 31 Oct, 15:37 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 23:48 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 18:51 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 20% |
| 30 Oct, 10:50 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 26% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if any quarter between Q1 2025 and Q4 2028 shows GDP growth exceeding 5%. It resolves to "No" if no such quarter occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about stock markets for the relevant data source, but only official GDP figures determine the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 30%
- No 70%