Trump's Deportation Agenda Hurts GOP in Key House Races
Polls show Latino voters turning against President Trump, impacting Republican incumbents in Florida and Texas ahead of midterm elections.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 9% |
| 6 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 14% |
| 5 Oct, 21:33 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 0% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 5 Oct 2026. Mother Jones published first, on 5 October at 18:40 UTC; Just In News followed 2h 59m later. The most recent article, from Just In News, appeared on 5 October at 21:39 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Just In News (major outlet), Mother Jones.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Deport / Deported / Deportation — resolved “No” on 6 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump uses the words "Deport," "Deported," or "Deportation" during his Midterm Rally in Grand Island, Nebraska. The event must take place on October 5, 2026, as originally scheduled for this condition to be met. Readers often mistake the date of the rally for a deadline to submit predictions rather than the specific moment when the spoken words trigger the resolution.
- Maria Elvira Salazar — the market puts it at 66%, with $514 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome "Yes" occurs if Maria Elvira Salazar remains a Republican when she takes office for the 2027 term in Florida's 27th district. The outcome "No" occurs if she is not a Republican at that time. Readers often mistake the timing, thinking the resolution depends on her party affiliation during the current election cycle rather than when she is sworn in for the 2027 term.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Deport / Deported / Deportation No 32d ago
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Maria Elvira Salazar 66%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
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Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
In this story
- Donald Trump
- Maria Elvira Salazar
- Monica De La Cruz