Deport / Deported / Deportation
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$30k
Total volume$30k
Liquidity$30k
Resolved19 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 9% |
| 6 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 14% |
| 5 Oct, 21:33 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump uses the words "Deport," "Deported," or "Deportation" during his Midterm Rally in Grand Island, Nebraska. The event must take place on October 5, 2026, as originally scheduled for this condition to be met. Readers often mistake the date of the rally for a deadline to submit predictions rather than the specific moment when the spoken words trigger the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%