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Musk, Trump Pour Hundreds of Millions Into Midterm Races

Elon Musk and Donald Trump have collectively spent over $800 million to support Republican candidates in the upcoming US midterm elections.

10 publishers · 15 articles · first seen 20 Oct 2026 · updated 14d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

First reported by News Feed, 2h 29m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · At least 250 billion
0%50%100%6%15 Oct, 17:36 UTCnowThe Hill: Musk ups midterm spending in final stretch · 23 Oct, 21:37 UTCFeed: All Latest: Elon Musk Just Dumped Another $76 Million Into the Midterms · 23 Oct, 16:12 UTCThe Hill News: Musk midterm spending tops $442M · 23 Oct, 13:20 UTCBloomberg.com: Midterm Elections Near, Musk Giving Tops $445 Million, More · 23 Oct, 11:43 UTCPolitico Congress: Elon Musk pours another $76 million into boosting Republicans · 22 Oct, 23:42 UTCThe Hill News: Trump, Republicans spend big in midterm home stretch · 22 Oct, 10:00 UTCBloomberg.com: Musk Spends Millions Backing Republicans in Midterm Races Like Texas Senate Race · 21 Oct, 21:58 UTCThe Guardian US: Elon Musk’s Super Pac spends $500,000 to back New York Republican in midterms · 21 Oct, 18:55 UTCpolitico.com: Trump’s super PAC dumps millions into GOP races, new data shows · 21 Oct, 02:35 UTCCBS News Politics: Trump criss-crosses U.S. for Republican candidates · 20 Oct, 23:32 UTCAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Trump commits more than $400m ahead of high-stakes midterm elections · 20 Oct, 21:27 UTCThe Hill: Trump says he's spent $300M in midterms so far · 20 Oct, 20:27 UTCNews Feed: Trump pledges to spend $400mn on Republican Party campaigns · 20 Oct, 17:57 UTCLatest articles: Musk’s political donations top $445 million ahead of U.S. midterm elections · 23 Oct, 09:22 UTCFortune: ‘It’s more than any president has ever spent’: Trump’s groups spent nearly $277 million on the midterms—and he still has $164 million left to spend · 21 Oct, 20:22 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now6%
20 Oct, 15:58 UTC6%
16 Oct, 18:45 UTC1%
15 Oct, 17:36 UTC2%

The story so far

10 publishers have covered this in 15 articles since 20 Oct 2026. News Feed published first, on 20 October at 17:57 UTC; The Hill followed 2h 30m later. The most recent article, from The Hill, appeared on 23 October at 21:37 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), Politico Congress (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), Bloomberg.com (major outlet), Feed: All Latest (major outlet), Fortune, Latest articles.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • At least 250 billion — the market puts it at 6%, closing 31 Mar 2029. The outcome is Yes if government spending drops by at least $250 billion compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 in any single quarter through the end of 2028. The outcome is No if this specific drop never occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the calendar year rather than the end of 2028, or they look at total annual deficits instead of quarterly spending levels.
  • At least 250 billion — the market puts it at 7%, closing 31 Mar 2027. The market resolves to Yes if total government spending drops by at least $250 billion between October 1, 2024, and September 30, 2026. It resolves to No if the decrease falls short of that threshold or if spending increases during this period. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the calendar year rather than the specific three-year window defined in the rules.
  • Above 40 — resolved “Yes” on 29 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump holds more than 40 rallies between January 1 and November 3, 2026. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the start date of the count or assume only major events qualify.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on At least 250 billion at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. News FeedTrump pledges to spend $400mn on Republican Party campaigns6%
  2. The HillTrump says he's spent $300M in midterms so far6%
  3. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraTrump commits more than $400m ahead of high-stakes midterm elections6%
  4. CBS News PoliticsTrump criss-crosses U.S. for Republican candidates6%
  5. politico.comTrump’s super PAC dumps millions into GOP races, new data shows6%
  6. The Guardian USElon Musk’s Super Pac spends $500,000 to back New York Republican in midterms6%
  7. Fortune‘It’s more than any president has ever spent’: Trump’s groups spent nearly $277 million on the midterms—and he still has $164 million left to spend6%
  8. Bloomberg.comMusk Spends Millions Backing Republicans in Midterm Races Like Texas Senate Race6%
  9. The Hill NewsTrump, Republicans spend big in midterm home stretch6%
  10. Politico CongressElon Musk pours another $76 million into boosting Republicans6%
  11. Show 5 later sources
    1. Latest articlesMusk’s political donations top $445 million ahead of U.S. midterm elections6%
    2. Bloomberg.comMidterm Elections Near, Musk Giving Tops $445 Million, More6%
    3. The Hill NewsMusk midterm spending tops $442M6%
    4. Feed: All LatestElon Musk Just Dumped Another $76 Million Into the Midterms6%
    5. The HillMusk ups midterm spending in final stretch6%
  12. Current odds6%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Musk ups midterm spending in final stretch The Hill ·
  2. Elon Musk Just Dumped Another $76 Million Into the Midterms Feed: All Latest ·
  3. Musk midterm spending tops $442M The Hill News ·
  4. Midterm Elections Near, Musk Giving Tops $445 Million, More Bloomberg.com ·
  5. Elon Musk pours another $76 million into boosting Republicans Politico Congress ·
  6. Trump, Republicans spend big in midterm home stretch The Hill News ·
Show 9 more sources
  1. Musk Spends Millions Backing Republicans in Midterm Races Like Texas Senate Race Bloomberg.com ·
  2. Elon Musk’s Super Pac spends $500,000 to back New York Republican in midterms The Guardian US ·
  3. Trump’s super PAC dumps millions into GOP races, new data shows politico.com ·
  4. Trump criss-crosses U.S. for Republican candidates CBS News Politics ·
  5. Trump commits more than $400m ahead of high-stakes midterm elections Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  6. Trump says he's spent $300M in midterms so far The Hill ·
  7. Trump pledges to spend $400mn on Republican Party campaigns News Feed ·
  8. Musk’s political donations top $445 million ahead of U.S. midterm elections Latest articles
  9. ‘It’s more than any president has ever spent’: Trump’s groups spent nearly $277 million on the midterms—and he still has $164 million left to spend Fortune

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi At least 250 billion 6% $0 24hends 31 Mar 2029

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi At least 250 billion 7% $0 24hends 31 Mar 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Above 40 Yes 9d ago

    The market favoured Yes at 94% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

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