Above 40
The market favoured Yes at 94% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 95%
24-hour volume$19
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$7k
Resolved29 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 95% |
| 28 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 95% |
| 27 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 88% |
| 26 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 90% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump holds more than 40 rallies between January 1 and November 3, 2026. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the start date of the count or assume only major events qualify.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 95%
- No 5%