Trump on Cusp of Toppling Brazil’s Leftist Giant
The US president is positioned to remove the leader of Latin America's largest leftist party.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 01:58 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 01:19 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Oct, 22:20 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Oct, 19:39 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 19:25 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 18:25 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Oct, 13:17 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Oct, 12:10 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 07:46 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 07:11 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 05:57 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 02:35 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 02:21 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 23:12 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 17:08 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 16:40 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 12:40 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 11:50 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 09:57 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 04:25 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Oct, 14:32 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 05:04 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Oct, 04:24 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Oct, 23:27 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Oct, 05:02 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Oct, 04:41 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 20% |
| 22 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 21% |
| 21 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 20% |
| 21 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 21% |
| 21 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Oct, 09:05 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 19% |
| 21 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 20% |
| 21 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 19% |
| 21 Oct, 03:02 UTC | 20% |
| 21 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 19% |
| 21 Oct, 01:03 UTC | 19% |
| 21 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 19% |
| 20 Oct, 23:07 UTC | 19% |
| 20 Oct, 22:38 UTC | 18% |
| 20 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 18% |
| 20 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 18% |
| 20 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 20% |
| 20 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 19% |
| 20 Oct, 18:45 UTC | 23% |
| 20 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 17% |
| 20 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 17% |
| 20 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 18% |
| 20 Oct, 16:27 UTC | 15% |
| 20 Oct, 14:33 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Oct, 13:53 UTC | 18% |
| 20 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 18% |
| 20 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 19% |
| 20 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 22% |
| 20 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 19% |
| 20 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 21% |
| 20 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 26% |
| 20 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 26% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 25% |
| 19 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 28% |
| 19 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 31% |
| 18 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 29% |
| 18 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 29% |
| 18 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 31% |
| 18 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 33% |
| 18 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 16:17 UTC | 26% |
| 18 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 26% |
| 18 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 29% |
| 18 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 30% |
| 17 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Oct, 16:16 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 26% |
| 17 Oct, 13:34 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 23% |
| 17 Oct, 04:09 UTC | 24% |
| 16 Oct, 23:43 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Oct, 22:55 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Oct, 22:09 UTC | 24% |
| 16 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 24% |
| 16 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Oct, 18:17 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Oct, 17:55 UTC | 22% |
| 16 Oct, 17:15 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 22% |
| 16 Oct, 16:20 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 24% |
| 16 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Oct, 12:26 UTC | 22% |
| 16 Oct, 11:58 UTC | 22% |
| 16 Oct, 11:09 UTC | 22% |
| 16 Oct, 10:55 UTC | 22% |
| 16 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 22% |
| 16 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 22% |
| 16 Oct, 09:12 UTC | 22% |
| 16 Oct, 08:20 UTC | 21% |
| 16 Oct, 07:46 UTC | 22% |
| 16 Oct, 06:43 UTC | 19% |
| 16 Oct, 06:08 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 21% |
| 16 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 21% |
| 16 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 22% |
| 16 Oct, 03:43 UTC | 21% |
| 16 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 21% |
| 16 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 01:56 UTC | 19% |
| 16 Oct, 01:15 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 00:48 UTC | 20% |
| 15 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 18% |
| 15 Oct, 22:01 UTC | 18% |
| 15 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 18% |
| 15 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 17% |
| 15 Oct, 13:10 UTC | 18% |
| 15 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 10:45 UTC | 20% |
| 15 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 20% |
| 15 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 20% |
| 15 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 20% |
| 15 Oct, 05:34 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 20% |
| 15 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 03:36 UTC | 18% |
| 15 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 18% |
| 15 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 18% |
| 14 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 20% |
| 14 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 19% |
| 14 Oct, 21:06 UTC | 18% |
| 14 Oct, 18:12 UTC | 19% |
| 14 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 19% |
| 14 Oct, 09:37 UTC | 19% |
| 14 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 18% |
| 14 Oct, 08:36 UTC | 18% |
| 14 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 18% |
| 14 Oct, 02:29 UTC | 18% |
| 14 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 17% |
| 14 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 18% |
| 13 Oct, 23:39 UTC | 17% |
| 13 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 18% |
| 13 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 18% |
| 13 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 17% |
| 13 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 17% |
| 13 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 17% |
| 13 Oct, 16:11 UTC | 18% |
| 13 Oct, 15:31 UTC | 17% |
| 13 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 17% |
| 13 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 16% |
| 13 Oct, 13:18 UTC | 17% |
| 13 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 18% |
| 13 Oct, 11:41 UTC | 17% |
| 13 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 18% |
| 13 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 18% |
| 13 Oct, 07:21 UTC | 19% |
| 13 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 18% |
| 13 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 18% |
| 13 Oct, 04:41 UTC | 18% |
| 13 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 19% |
| 13 Oct, 03:34 UTC | 19% |
| 13 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 19% |
| 13 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 19% |
| 13 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 19% |
| 12 Oct, 23:40 UTC | 20% |
| 12 Oct, 23:08 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 22:40 UTC | 20% |
| 12 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 14:42 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 13:09 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 10:53 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 07:10 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 23% |
| 12 Oct, 05:43 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 05:18 UTC | 23% |
| 12 Oct, 04:54 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 04:10 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 03:25 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 02:28 UTC | 23% |
| 12 Oct, 01:43 UTC | 23% |
| 11 Oct, 23:37 UTC | 23% |
| 11 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 22:08 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 21:06 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 18:07 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 17:39 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 16:32 UTC | 28% |
| 11 Oct, 14:42 UTC | 27% |
| 11 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 12:55 UTC | 25% |
| 11 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 24% |
| 11 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 22% |
| 11 Oct, 10:27 UTC | 25% |
| 11 Oct, 09:08 UTC | 22% |
| 11 Oct, 08:31 UTC | 23% |
| 11 Oct, 08:13 UTC | 23% |
| 11 Oct, 07:14 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 25% |
| 11 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 25% |
| 11 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 04:53 UTC | 24% |
| 11 Oct, 04:16 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 27% |
| 11 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 27% |
| 11 Oct, 02:11 UTC | 27% |
| 11 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 27% |
| 11 Oct, 01:16 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 00:45 UTC | 26% |
| 11 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 26% |
| 10 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 26% |
| 10 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 21:47 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 17:55 UTC | 26% |
| 10 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 26% |
| 10 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 26% |
| 10 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 26% |
| 10 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 26% |
| 10 Oct, 13:28 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Oct, 11:41 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 24% |
| 10 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 24% |
| 10 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 24% |
| 10 Oct, 09:28 UTC | 24% |
| 10 Oct, 08:17 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Oct, 07:30 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Oct, 07:10 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Oct, 06:44 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Oct, 06:19 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Oct, 05:33 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 23% |
| 10 Oct, 04:34 UTC | 23% |
| 10 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 24% |
| 10 Oct, 03:05 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 00:05 UTC | 26% |
| 9 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 25% |
| 9 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 24% |
| 9 Oct, 17:25 UTC | 23% |
| 9 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Oct, 16:16 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 28% |
| 8 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 28% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Oct, 13:00 UTC | 28% |
| 8 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Oct, 11:46 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Oct, 00:13 UTC | 31% |
| 7 Oct, 23:18 UTC | 31% |
| 7 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 32% |
| 7 Oct, 20:36 UTC | 32% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 36% |
| 7 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 37% |
| 7 Oct, 19:20 UTC | 34% |
| 7 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 35% |
| 7 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 35% |
| 7 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 36% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 37% |
| 7 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 36% |
| 7 Oct, 14:19 UTC | 37% |
| 7 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 49% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 7 Oct 2026. The Hill News published first, on 7 October at 12:30 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil? — resolved “No” on 26 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump makes a single public statement that explicitly and unambiguously supports Flávio Bolsonaro as a candidate for President of Brazil in the 2026 elections, confirmed by credible reporting as an official endorsement. It resolves to No if he endorses any other individual for that specific office or fails to endorse anyone at all.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil? No 12d ago
The market favoured No at 94% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?