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Trump Offers $1M Reward for Voter Fraud Tips Ahead of Midterms

The US president announced a $1 million bounty for tips leading to voter fraud convictions in past and upcoming elections, contingent on arrests.

5 publishers · 6 articles · first seen 26 Oct 2026 · updated 10d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

First reported by Rolling Stone, 27 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Before Jan 1, 2027
0%50%100%3%4 Oct, 14:59 UTCnowThe Guardian: First Thing: Trump targets midterm legitimacy with lawsuits and a cash bounty · 27 Oct, 13:20 UTCThe Guardian: Trump issues $1m reward for reporting voter fraud in past or upcoming elections · 26 Oct, 22:23 UTCThe Hill News: Trump announces $1M rewards for voter fraud tips ahead of midterms · 26 Oct, 22:10 UTCNews Feed: Trump offers $1mn reward for tips leading to election fraud conviction · 26 Oct, 21:50 UTCBBC News: Trump says US voter fraud is 'rampant' - evidence suggests it is extremely rare · 27 Oct, 21:46 UTCRolling Stone: Trump Offers $1,000,000 Voter Fraud Bounty · 26 Oct, 21:22 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now3%
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The story so far

5 publishers have covered this in 6 articles since 26 Oct 2026. Rolling Stone published first, on 26 October at 21:22 UTC; News Feed followed 28 min later. The most recent article, from BBC News, appeared on 27 October at 21:46 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), The Hill News (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), Rolling Stone, BBC News.

2 prediction markets price this story:

  • Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 3%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if a bill mandating a $250 bill with Donald Trump’s likeness becomes law before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if that specific legislation does not become law by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Medicare payments for the actual resolution criteria.
  • Fraud (3+ times) — resolved “No” on 28 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump explicitly says "Fraud" three or more times during his midterm rally in Lubbock, Texas. The event must occur at this specific rally originally scheduled for October 27, 2026. Readers often mistake the reward offer mentioned in the linked story for the triggering condition, but only the spoken words at the rally count.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Before Jan 1, 2027 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. Rolling StoneTrump Offers $1,000,000 Voter Fraud Bounty2%
  2. News FeedTrump offers $1mn reward for tips leading to election fraud conviction2%
  3. The Hill NewsTrump announces $1M rewards for voter fraud tips ahead of midterms2%
  4. The GuardianTrump issues $1m reward for reporting voter fraud in past or upcoming elections2%
  5. The GuardianFirst Thing: Trump targets midterm legitimacy with lawsuits and a cash bounty3%▲1 points since the previous source
  6. BBC NewsTrump says US voter fraud is 'rampant' - evidence suggests it is extremely rare2%▼1 points since the previous source
  7. Current odds3%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. First Thing: Trump targets midterm legitimacy with lawsuits and a cash bounty The Guardian ·
  2. Trump issues $1m reward for reporting voter fraud in past or upcoming elections The Guardian ·
  3. Trump announces $1M rewards for voter fraud tips ahead of midterms The Hill News ·
  4. Trump offers $1mn reward for tips leading to election fraud conviction News Feed ·
  5. Trump says US voter fraud is 'rampant' - evidence suggests it is extremely rare BBC News
  6. Trump Offers $1,000,000 Voter Fraud Bounty Rolling Stone

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 3% $1k 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Fraud (3+ times) No 10d ago

    The market favoured No at 58% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

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