Fraud (3+ times)
The market favoured No at 58% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$69k
Total volume$77k
Liquidity$77k
Resolved10 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 11% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 33% |
| 27 Oct, 23:52 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 70% |
| 27 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 65% |
| 27 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Oct, 21:26 UTC | 68% |
| 27 Oct, 20:39 UTC | 76% |
| 27 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 55% |
| 27 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Oct, 18:49 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 44% |
| 27 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Oct, 15:56 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Oct, 14:36 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Oct, 13:36 UTC | 25% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump explicitly says "Fraud" three or more times during his midterm rally in Lubbock, Texas. The event must occur at this specific rally originally scheduled for October 27, 2026. Readers often mistake the reward offer mentioned in the linked story for the triggering condition, but only the spoken words at the rally count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%