NewsMarkets

Politics

Trump Approval Hits Historic Low in Wall Street Journal Poll

The president's approval rating has fallen to 37 percent, marking the lowest figure for a chief executive at this stage before midterm elections.

1 publisher · 1 article · first seen 28 Sept 2026 · updated 40d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Below 36%
0%50%100%46%27 Sept, 12:17 UTCnowThe Hill: Trump approval slips to historic low in Wall Street Journal survey · 28 Sept, 13:05 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now46%
30 Sept, 06:05 UTC46%
30 Sept, 04:20 UTC44%
29 Sept, 23:15 UTC46%
29 Sept, 16:15 UTC47%
29 Sept, 14:44 UTC43%
29 Sept, 13:35 UTC47%
29 Sept, 05:53 UTC40%
28 Sept, 19:18 UTC41%
28 Sept, 13:20 UTC40%
27 Sept, 12:17 UTC42%

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 28 Sept 2026. The Hill published first, on 28 September at 13:05 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Below 36% — the market puts it at 46%, with $214 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 7 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump's approval rating falls below 36% at any point between December 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, as reported by VoteHub. The outcome is No if his approval rating stays at 36% or higher throughout that entire period. Readers often mistake the specific date of the linked news story for the deadline, but only data from VoteHub during the specified window counts.
  • Below 38.2 — the market puts it at 12%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if the President's approval rating falls below 38.2% at 11:00 AM ET on October 02, 2026, as reported by RealClearPolitics. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the source of truth for other polling aggregators or miss the specific time and date deadline.
  • Above 37.7% — the market puts it at 23%, with $5k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump's VoteHub approval polling average is above 37.7% at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 2, 2026. It resolves to No if the average is 37.7% or lower at that time. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Trump approval slips to historic low in Wall Street Journal survey The Hill ·

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Below 36% 46% +6 $214 24hends 7 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Below 38.2 12% −7 $3k 24hends 2 Oct 2026

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Above 37.7% 23% −14 $5k 24hends 2 Oct 2026

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

Have your say

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Email me when the odds move

We email a link to confirm first. At most one alert email every six hours; unsubscribe in one click. Privacy

In this story

Embed this story

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.