Above 37.7%
Implied probability 48%+12
24-hour volume$851
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves2 Oct 2026
Why it moved: +11 points at 13:30 UTC, after The Hill: Trump approval slips to historic low in Wall Street Journal survey — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 48% |
| 28 Sept, 13:30 UTC | 45% |
| 28 Sept, 13:20 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Sept, 12:25 UTC | 40% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump's VoteHub approval polling average is above 37.7% at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 2, 2026. It resolves to No if the average is 37.7% or lower at that time. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 48%
- No 52%