NewsMarkets

Politics

Trump Administration Asks Supreme Court To Lift Block On Transgender Inmate Care Ban

The Justice Department seeks to enforce restrictions on hormone therapy and gender-affirming surgeries for transgender inmates in federal prisons.

6 publishers · 6 articles · first seen 28 Sept 2026 · updated 39d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

First reported by The Hill News, 1h 26m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Before 2029
0%50%100%21%27 Sept, 13:31 UTCnowThe Guardian US: Trump admin asks supreme court to allow gender-affirming care denial to transgender prisoners · 29 Sept, 15:25 UTCCBS News Politics: DOJ asks Supreme Court to allow policy ending medical care for transgender inmates · 28 Sept, 16:52 UTCThe Hill News: Trump administration asks Supreme Court to OK transgender inmate policy · 28 Sept, 15:26 UTCMedPageToday.com - medical news for physicians: Trump Admin Asks SCOTUS to Allow Trans Medical Care Restrictions in Prison · 29 Sept, 14:26 UTCFox News Politics: DOJ pleads with Supreme Court to save ban on transgender treatments in federal prisons · 28 Sept, 18:26 UTCSTAT: Trump administration asks Supreme Court to allow transgender medical care restrictions in prison · 28 Sept, 17:55 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now21%
1 Oct, 15:27 UTC21%
1 Oct, 02:14 UTC24%
30 Sept, 15:00 UTC21%
27 Sept, 13:31 UTC24%

The story so far

6 publishers have covered this in 6 articles since 28 Sept 2026. The Hill News published first, on 28 September at 15:26 UTC; CBS News Politics followed 1h 26m later. The most recent article, from The Guardian US, appeared on 29 September at 15:25 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Hill News (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), STAT, Fox News Politics, MedPageToday.com - medical news for physicians.

One prediction market prices this story:

  • Before 2029 — the market puts it at 21%, with $4 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if the US Supreme Court issues a ruling that lifts the ban on transgender girls and women competing in female sports teams before January 1, 2029. The outcome is No if the Court does not issue such a ruling within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about inmate care for the actual resolution criteria regarding sports teams.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Trump admin asks supreme court to allow gender-affirming care denial to transgender prisoners The Guardian US ·
  2. DOJ asks Supreme Court to allow policy ending medical care for transgender inmates CBS News Politics ·
  3. Trump administration asks Supreme Court to OK transgender inmate policy The Hill News ·
  4. Trump Admin Asks SCOTUS to Allow Trans Medical Care Restrictions in Prison MedPageToday.com - medical news for physicians
  5. DOJ pleads with Supreme Court to save ban on transgender treatments in federal prisons Fox News Politics
  6. Trump administration asks Supreme Court to allow transgender medical care restrictions in prison STAT

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Before 2029 21% $4 24hends 1 Jan 2029

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

Have your say

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Email me when the odds move

We email a link to confirm first. At most one alert email every six hours; unsubscribe in one click. Privacy

In this story

Embed this story

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.