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Texas Gov Greg Abbott to Skip San Antonio Rally With Trump Amid Tight Reelection Race

Greg Abbott declines a joint appearance with Donald Trump in San Antonio as Democrat Gina Hinojosa ramps up fundraising in the competitive governor's race.

2 publishers · 2 articles · first seen 6 Oct 2026 · updated 32d ago

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The odds

How the odds moved · Gina Hinojosa
0%50%100%100%22 Sept, 06:59 UTCnowBloomberg Markets: Texas Governor to Skip San Antonio Trump Rally Amid Tight Race · 6 Oct, 19:01 UTCWashington Post: In Texas governor’s race, Abbott spends big to try to stay in office · 6 Oct, 15:00 UTC

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The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 6 Oct 2026. Washington Post published first, on 6 October at 15:00 UTC; Bloomberg Markets followed 4h 01m later. The most recent article, from Bloomberg Markets, appeared on 6 October at 19:01 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Washington Post (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet).

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Gina Hinojosa — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if a Democrat wins and takes office as Texas governor after the 2026 election. The outcome is No if that does not happen. Readers often mistake the election date for the resolution deadline; the market resolves only when the winner is inaugurated.
  • Abbott, 3+ pts — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by a margin of at least 3 percentage points. It resolves to No if the Republican candidate loses or wins by less than 3 percentage points. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a campaign rally for the actual election result, but only the final certified vote count determines the outcome.
  • Greg Abbott — the market puts it at 14%, with $18 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Greg Abbott announces a campaign for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination before January 1, 2028. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about skipping a rally as an announcement, but only a formal declaration of candidacy counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Texas Governor to Skip San Antonio Trump Rally Amid Tight Race Bloomberg Markets ·
  2. In Texas governor’s race, Abbott spends big to try to stay in office Washington Post ·

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Resolved Gina Hinojosa Yes 3d ago

    The market favoured No at 59% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Abbott, 3+ pts No 3d ago

    The market favoured No at 57% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Greg Abbott 14% $18 24hends 1 Jan 2028

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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