Tesla Profits Drop 43% as Free Cash Flow Beats Expectations
Tesla reported a 43% profit decline and flat revenue in Q3, yet generated $1.5 billion in free cash flow while cutting its 2026 capital spending forecast.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by All Content from Business Insider, 42 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 64% |
| 24 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 64% |
| 21 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 60% |
| 20 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 67% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 66% |
| 18 Oct, 10:59 UTC | 59% |
| 12 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 66% |
| 6 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 59% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 60% |
| 30 Sept, 23:06 UTC | 66% |
| 30 Sept, 22:03 UTC | 65% |
| 30 Sept, 18:46 UTC | 63% |
| 28 Sept, 06:36 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 21:15 UTC | 63% |
| 25 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 56% |
| 24 Sept, 12:43 UTC | 63% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Above 15 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter respond.
The story so far
6 publishers have covered this in 6 articles since 21 Oct 2026. All Content from Business Insider published first, on 21 October at 20:52 UTC; Ars Technica followed 43 min later. The most recent article, from decrypt.co, appeared on 22 October at 18:06 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Ars Technica (major outlet), All Content from Business Insider, theinformation.com, Times of India, Quartz, decrypt.co.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Above 15 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter — the market puts it at 64%, with $8 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Apr 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Tesla deploys more than 15 GWh of energy products in any single quarter between Q1 2025 and Q1 2027. It resolves to No if the company fails to meet this threshold during that period. Readers often mistake the linked news story about the US Energy Department for the relevant data source, but only Tesla's deployment figures count.
- Above 1.9 million — the market puts it at 32%, with $9 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Mar 2028. The market resolves to "Yes" if Tesla Inc. reports a total production figure above 1,900,000 units in 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of 2025 or assume any reported number counts, but only Tesla's official report for the full year of 2026 matters.
- Above 500000 in a single quarter — the market puts it at 46%, with $38 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Apr 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Tesla delivers more than 500,000 vehicles in any single quarter between Q1 2025 and Q4 2026. It resolves to No if the company fails to hit this delivery threshold within that specific timeframe. Readers often mistake the start date for Q1 2024 or assume the deadline extends beyond Q4 2026.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Above 15 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- All Content from Business InsiderTesla's profits are under pressure60%
- Ars TechnicaTesla profits drop 43% in Q360%
- theinformation.comTesla Shares Fall 3% After Cutting Capital Spending60%
- Times of IndiaTesla reports $1.53 bn in free cash flow amid one-fifth cut to 2026 spending forecast60%
- QuartzTesla beat profit expectations and avoided cash burn as SpaceX merger is studied60%
- decrypt.coTesla's Profit Drops 43% as Musk Starts Building Robots and Plans to Sell Driverless Cabs60%
- Current odds64%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Tesla profits drop 43% in Q3 Ars Technica ·
- Tesla's Profit Drops 43% as Musk Starts Building Robots and Plans to Sell Driverless Cabs decrypt.co
- Tesla beat profit expectations and avoided cash burn as SpaceX merger is studied Quartz
- Tesla reports $1.53 bn in free cash flow amid one-fifth cut to 2026 spending forecast Times of India
- Tesla Shares Fall 3% After Cutting Capital Spending theinformation.com
- Tesla's profits are under pressure All Content from Business Insider
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Above 15 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter 64% +4
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Above 1.9 million 32% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Above 500000 in a single quarter 46% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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