Taiwan accuses China of harassment after standoff between coast guard ships Hot: $160k traded on its market in 24 hours
Taipei reports Chinese vessels entered restricted waters near a disputed island, while Beijing expands maritime patrols and naval drills across the Indo-Pacific.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 7 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 21:16 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 16:50 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 14:41 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 12:22 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 10:49 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 07:10 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 04:06 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 00:27 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 19:21 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 18:20 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 16:58 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 06:11 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 04:05 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 03:58 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 22:42 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 21:18 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 20:52 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 20:23 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 19:04 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 18:57 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 16:27 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 15:58 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 14:44 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 12:47 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 12:09 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 11:05 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 10:58 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 10:05 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 08:24 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 02:41 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 00:43 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 18:06 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 15:00 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 13:18 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 12:14 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 09:06 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 07:48 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 06:51 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 06:08 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 05:04 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 04:51 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 04:08 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 03:40 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 03:05 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 00:26 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 22:02 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 21:19 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 20:58 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 20:16 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 14:49 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 13:48 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 04:11 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Nov, 01:02 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 10:43 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Nov, 09:35 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 09:08 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 02:50 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 13:53 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 10:59 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 02:19 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 01:39 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 23:48 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 5% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? respond.
The story so far
5 publishers have covered this in 18 articles since 28 Oct 2026. Latest from Tom's Hardware in News published first, on 28 October at 11:30 UTC; Latest articles followed 15h 41m later. The most recent article, from News - South China Morning Post, appeared on 6 November at 06:00 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: ABC News (major outlet), Latest from Tom's Hardware in News, Latest articles, Times of India, News - South China Morning Post.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? — the market puts it at 3%, with $37 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to "Yes" if Chinese and Taiwanese military forces engage in direct combat, such as missile strikes or gunfire, between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Non-violent incidents like warning shots or minor ship damage do not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Readers often mistake the Taiwan Coast Guard for a military force eligible to trigger this outcome.
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — the market puts it at 2%, with $160k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if China starts a military offensive to control any part of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of the day in local time rather than Eastern Time.
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? — the market puts it at 9%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if China starts a military offensive to control any inhabited part of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline or assume uninhabited islands count toward the resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Latest from Tom's Hardware in NewsTaiwan working on autonomous drone swarms to counter China’s increasingly aggressive grey-zone military tactics — island has already completed flight simulations, now working towards flight trials over maritime areas—
- Latest articlesTaiwan flags ‘obvious’ threat from 50 Chinese vessels across regional waters—
- Latest articlesTaiwan says Pakistan briefly closed airspace to Taiwanese flights—
- Times of IndiaChina deploys over 50 vessels in western Pacific, raising alarm in Taiwan, Japan—
- News - South China Morning PostChina carries out GJ-21 drone take-off, landing from first Type 076 warship: state media—
- South China Morning PostBeijing drills water cannons and drones near disputed South China Sea shoals—
- South China Morning PostChina and US expand military drone flights near Japan and the South China Sea—
- Latest articlesTaiwan says China harassing shipping with east coast patrol5%
- South China Morning PostBeijing ramps up maritime patrols around Taiwan, prompting Taipei to shadow ships5%
- ABC NewsTaiwan accuses China of harassment after standoff between coast guard ships4%
Show 8 later sources
- Times of IndiaChina's mysterious submarine could give US Navy a Pacific nightmare4%
- News - South China Morning PostBeijing doubles down on Type 071 amphibious warships, signalling a Taiwan focus4%
- Latest articlesSea drone makers compete in Taiwan for soaring investment4%
- South China Morning PostChina tests wave-piercing stealth trimaran as unconventional naval fleet grows3%
- Latest from Tom's Hardware in NewsChinese survey ship loitering near undersea cable ignores Philippine demands to withdraw — evasive action point to growing PRC threats to data lines in the Pacific3%
- News - South China Morning PostTaiwan flags massive PLA naval mobilisation, spike in air sorties3%
- South China Morning PostUnderstanding China’s October drills and the growing risk factor3%
- News - South China Morning PostUS military expands Pacific cyber hub to counter risks to undersea cable networks3%
- Current odds3%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Taiwan accuses China of harassment after standoff between coast guard ships ABC News ·
- US military expands Pacific cyber hub to counter risks to undersea cable networks News - South China Morning Post
- Understanding China’s October drills and the growing risk factor South China Morning Post
- Taiwan flags massive PLA naval mobilisation, spike in air sorties News - South China Morning Post
- Chinese survey ship loitering near undersea cable ignores Philippine demands to withdraw — evasive action point to growing PRC threats to data lines in the Pacific Latest from Tom's Hardware in News
- China tests wave-piercing stealth trimaran as unconventional naval fleet grows South China Morning Post
Show 12 more sources
- Sea drone makers compete in Taiwan for soaring investment Latest articles
- Beijing doubles down on Type 071 amphibious warships, signalling a Taiwan focus News - South China Morning Post
- China's mysterious submarine could give US Navy a Pacific nightmare Times of India
- Beijing ramps up maritime patrols around Taiwan, prompting Taipei to shadow ships South China Morning Post
- Taiwan says China harassing shipping with east coast patrol Latest articles
- China and US expand military drone flights near Japan and the South China Sea South China Morning Post
- Beijing drills water cannons and drones near disputed South China Sea shoals South China Morning Post
- China carries out GJ-21 drone take-off, landing from first Type 076 warship: state media News - South China Morning Post
- China deploys over 50 vessels in western Pacific, raising alarm in Taiwan, Japan Times of India
- Taiwan says Pakistan briefly closed airspace to Taiwanese flights Latest articles
- Taiwan flags ‘obvious’ threat from 50 Chinese vessels across regional waters Latest articles
- Taiwan working on autonomous drone swarms to counter China’s increasingly aggressive grey-zone military tactics — island has already completed flight simulations, now working towards flight trials over maritime areas Latest from Tom's Hardware in News
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? 3%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 2%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? 9%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls