Taiwan Coast Guard Confronts Chinese Boats; Manila Files New South China Sea Map
Taiwan’s Coast Guard used water cannons against Chinese vessels near Dongsha, while the Philippines submitted an updated maritime chart to reinforce its South China Sea claims.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 3 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 8% |
| 2 Oct, 07:35 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Sept, 08:40 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Sept, 16:56 UTC | 9% |
| 19 Sept, 19:04 UTC | 8% |
| 19 Sept, 18:03 UTC | 8% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Sept, 22:28 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Sept, 13:21 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Sept, 12:28 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Sept, 08:32 UTC | 8% |
| 13 Sept, 03:20 UTC | 7% |
| 12 Sept, 03:20 UTC | 8% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 6 articles since 29 Sept 2026. South China Morning Post published first, on 29 September at 04:11 UTC; Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera followed 84h 12m later. The most recent article, from Latest articles, appeared on 3 October at 01:24 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), South China Morning Post, Latest articles.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? — the market puts it at 8%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jul 2027. The market resolves to Yes if China starts a military offensive to control any inhabited part of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the day rather than the specific time, or assume uninhabited islands count toward the resolution.
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? — the market puts it at 12%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if China starts a military offensive to control any inhabited part of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline or assume uninhabited islands count toward the resolution.
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027? — the market puts it at 25%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Chinese and Philippine military forces engage in direct combat, such as gunfire or intentional ship ramming causing significant damage, before December 31, 2026. It resolves to No if no such encounter occurs by that deadline or if the incident involves only non-military entities like the Philippine Coast Guard.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- South China Morning PostChinese deep-ocean drilling ship brings home ‘precious’ South China Sea samples8%
- South China Morning PostChinese research ship near the Batanes sparks undersea cable concerns in Manila8%
- South China Morning PostWhat does Philippines seek with new Thitu map in South China Sea?8%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraTaiwan Coast Guard confronts Chinese fishing boats in Dongsha waters9%▲1 points since the previous source
- South China Morning PostTaiwan coastguard uses water cannons to warn off mainland Chinese fishing vessel9%
- Latest articlesChinese work gathering pace on Antelope Reef in South China Sea9%
- Current odds8%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Taiwan Coast Guard confronts Chinese fishing boats in Dongsha waters Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Chinese work gathering pace on Antelope Reef in South China Sea Latest articles
- Taiwan coastguard uses water cannons to warn off mainland Chinese fishing vessel South China Morning Post
- What does Philippines seek with new Thitu map in South China Sea? South China Morning Post
- Chinese research ship near the Batanes sparks undersea cable concerns in Manila South China Morning Post
- Chinese deep-ocean drilling ship brings home ‘precious’ South China Sea samples South China Morning Post
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? 8%
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- Polymarket Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? 12%
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- Polymarket China x Philippines military clash before 2027? 25% −2
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In this story
- Taiwan Coast Guard
- China Geological Survey
- Philippines