Supreme Court Opens New Term With Major Cases On Immigration And Gun Rights

The story so far

10 publishers have covered this in 14 articles since 30 Sept 2026. The Hill published first, on 30 September at 10:00 UTC; Roll Call followed 47h 50m later. The most recent article, from The Hill, appeared on 6 October at 11:20 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), NPR Politics (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), Washington Post (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), Bloomberg.com (major outlet), Roll Call, Latest articles, Fox News Politics.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Not nine justices — the market puts it at 10%, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the Supreme Court has an equal number of justices appointed by Republican and Democratic presidents on January 20, 2029. It resolves to No if that balance is not achieved by that date. Readers often mistake the resolution date for the start of the new term rather than the specific deadline of January 20, 2029.
• Before Jan 20, 2029 — the market puts it at 3%, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the total number of Supreme Court justices changes between now and January 20, 2029. It resolves to No if the court size remains exactly the same during that period. Readers often mistake the start date of the term for the deadline, but only the final count on January 20, 2029 matters.
• Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 57%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump meets a sitting Supreme Court justice by phone or in person before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if no such meeting occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked story about Jack Smith for the resolution criteria, but only interactions between Trump and a justice count.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.