Before Jan 20, 2029
Why it moved: −31 points at 10:32 UTC, after NPR Politics: Trump's arch is on the verge of federal approval. But a judge could block construction — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 5 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Nov, 10:32 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Nov, 00:44 UTC | 36% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the total number of Supreme Court justices changes between now and January 20, 2029. It resolves to No if the court size remains exactly the same during that period. Readers often mistake the start date of the term for the deadline, but only the final count on January 20, 2029 matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%