Supreme Court Leans Toward Allowing Catholic Preschools to Exclude LGBTQ Families
The Supreme Court appears poised to rule that religious schools participating in Colorado's universal pre-K program may deny admission to children with LGBTQ parents.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 02:19 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 9% |
| 31 Oct, 00:17 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 9% |
| 21 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 7% |
| 7 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 14% |
| 7 Oct, 14:11 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Oct, 07:12 UTC | 13% |
| 2 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 7% |
Replay the odds, article by article
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The story so far
6 publishers have covered this in 11 articles since 1 Nov 2026. NPR Politics published first, on 1 November at 09:00 UTC; The Hill News followed 13h 00m later. The most recent article, from Mother Jones, appeared on 3 November at 23:26 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: NPR Politics (major outlet), The Hill News (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), Fox News Politics, Mother Jones.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Before 2029 — the market puts it at 9%, closing 1 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if the Supreme Court of the United States overturns Obergefell v. Hodges between now and December 31, 2028. The outcome is No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a different case for the actual resolution event.
- Before 2029 — the market puts it at 24%, closing 1 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if the US Supreme Court issues a ruling that lifts the ban on transgender girls and women competing in female sports teams before January 1, 2029. The outcome is No if the Court does not issue such a ruling within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about inmate care for the actual resolution criteria regarding sports teams.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Before 2029 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- NPR PoliticsSupreme Court hears religious freedom case centered on universal pre-K program9%
- The Hill NewsPreschool case puts LGBTQ and religious rights at odds in Supreme Court9%
- CBS News PoliticsSupreme Court to hear religious liberty case over Colorado preschools9%
- The Hill NewsSupreme Court weighs if Colorado preschools must admit kids of same-sex couples9%
- The Hill NewsListen live: Supreme Court weighs religious freedom, LGBTQ rights in Colorado case9%
- The GuardianUS supreme court to hear arguments in Catholic preschools’ LGBTQ+ exclusion case9%
- CBS News PoliticsSupreme Court seems likely to favor Catholic schools in pre-K fight9%
- Fox News PoliticsSupreme Court offers support for Catholic preschools challenging state funding requirements9%
- NPR PoliticsSupreme Court leans towards LGBTQ exclusion in Colorado Catholic pre-schools9%
- NPR PoliticsSupreme Court leans toward LGBTQ exclusion for publicly funded Catholic preschools9%
- Mother JonesSCOTUS Looks Ready to Let Public Money Fund Religious Discrimination9%
- Current odds9%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Supreme Court leans towards LGBTQ exclusion in Colorado Catholic pre-schools NPR Politics ·
- Supreme Court leans toward LGBTQ exclusion for publicly funded Catholic preschools NPR Politics ·
- Supreme Court seems likely to favor Catholic schools in pre-K fight CBS News Politics ·
- US supreme court to hear arguments in Catholic preschools’ LGBTQ+ exclusion case The Guardian ·
- Listen live: Supreme Court weighs religious freedom, LGBTQ rights in Colorado case The Hill News ·
- Supreme Court weighs if Colorado preschools must admit kids of same-sex couples The Hill News ·
Show 5 more sources
- Supreme Court to hear religious liberty case over Colorado preschools CBS News Politics ·
- Preschool case puts LGBTQ and religious rights at odds in Supreme Court The Hill News ·
- Supreme Court hears religious freedom case centered on universal pre-K program NPR Politics ·
- SCOTUS Looks Ready to Let Public Money Fund Religious Discrimination Mother Jones
- Supreme Court offers support for Catholic preschools challenging state funding requirements Fox News Politics
Related prediction markets
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- Kalshi Before 2029 9%
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In this story
- Supreme Court
- Colorado
- Archdiocese of Denver
- Catholic preschools