Spain thrash Croatia 4-1 in UEFA Nations League as Lamine Yamal stars

Lamine Yamal scored twice and provided an assist to lead Spain to a 4-1 victory over Croatia, extending their unbeaten run to 40 matches.

7 publishers · 27 articles · first seen 28 Sept 2026 · updated 31d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Spain

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	44%
8 Oct, 20:47 UTC	44%
8 Oct, 19:58 UTC	46%
8 Oct, 19:24 UTC	45%
8 Oct, 18:46 UTC	44%
8 Oct, 18:11 UTC	45%
8 Oct, 15:46 UTC	41%
8 Oct, 15:28 UTC	42%
8 Oct, 14:12 UTC	49%
8 Oct, 13:59 UTC	47%
8 Oct, 13:23 UTC	41%
8 Oct, 12:45 UTC	42%
8 Oct, 11:54 UTC	44%
8 Oct, 09:59 UTC	40%
8 Oct, 03:48 UTC	39%
8 Oct, 03:29 UTC	38%
8 Oct, 02:54 UTC	38%
8 Oct, 02:09 UTC	37%
8 Oct, 01:49 UTC	36%
8 Oct, 00:47 UTC	38%
8 Oct, 00:21 UTC	39%
7 Oct, 23:38 UTC	38%
7 Oct, 23:18 UTC	36%
7 Oct, 21:58 UTC	38%
7 Oct, 20:30 UTC	39%
7 Oct, 19:49 UTC	38%
7 Oct, 19:06 UTC	37%
7 Oct, 18:47 UTC	38%
7 Oct, 18:06 UTC	38%
7 Oct, 17:52 UTC	36%
7 Oct, 17:16 UTC	39%
7 Oct, 16:55 UTC	45%
7 Oct, 15:55 UTC	37%
7 Oct, 15:24 UTC	43%
7 Oct, 14:41 UTC	48%
7 Oct, 14:19 UTC	50%
7 Oct, 13:51 UTC	51%
7 Oct, 13:19 UTC	50%
7 Oct, 12:58 UTC	49%
7 Oct, 12:26 UTC	51%
7 Oct, 11:59 UTC	48%
7 Oct, 11:17 UTC	47%
7 Oct, 10:50 UTC	48%
7 Oct, 10:29 UTC	48%
7 Oct, 09:48 UTC	50%
7 Oct, 09:24 UTC	46%
7 Oct, 08:40 UTC	50%
7 Oct, 07:20 UTC	46%
7 Oct, 00:35 UTC	44%
6 Oct, 20:30 UTC	46%
6 Oct, 17:53 UTC	42%
6 Oct, 08:29 UTC	46%
6 Oct, 07:51 UTC	34%
6 Oct, 07:19 UTC	37%
6 Oct, 04:55 UTC	45%
6 Oct, 01:16 UTC	50%
6 Oct, 00:36 UTC	44%
6 Oct, 00:03 UTC	46%
5 Oct, 22:49 UTC	50%
5 Oct, 21:40 UTC	40%
5 Oct, 20:17 UTC	44%
5 Oct, 19:49 UTC	45%
5 Oct, 16:54 UTC	37%
5 Oct, 15:28 UTC	41%
5 Oct, 14:09 UTC	38%
5 Oct, 09:01 UTC	42%
5 Oct, 05:43 UTC	40%
5 Oct, 03:19 UTC	38%
5 Oct, 02:07 UTC	43%
5 Oct, 00:36 UTC	36%
5 Oct, 00:11 UTC	46%
4 Oct, 23:58 UTC	38%
4 Oct, 21:50 UTC	43%
4 Oct, 21:05 UTC	45%
4 Oct, 19:07 UTC	44%
4 Oct, 16:48 UTC	45%
4 Oct, 13:32 UTC	44%
4 Oct, 13:24 UTC	45%
4 Oct, 11:36 UTC	46%
4 Oct, 08:04 UTC	45%
4 Oct, 07:31 UTC	46%
4 Oct, 07:12 UTC	36%
4 Oct, 06:01 UTC	46%
4 Oct, 05:17 UTC	47%
4 Oct, 04:20 UTC	50%
4 Oct, 02:23 UTC	41%
4 Oct, 01:20 UTC	42%
3 Oct, 23:55 UTC	49%
3 Oct, 23:03 UTC	42%
3 Oct, 22:43 UTC	45%
3 Oct, 22:16 UTC	45%
3 Oct, 21:50 UTC	46%
3 Oct, 21:03 UTC	39%
3 Oct, 20:30 UTC	45%
3 Oct, 19:36 UTC	48%
3 Oct, 19:22 UTC	46%
3 Oct, 18:16 UTC	42%
3 Oct, 17:56 UTC	51%
3 Oct, 16:32 UTC	49%
3 Oct, 16:13 UTC	36%
3 Oct, 15:27 UTC	51%
3 Oct, 14:27 UTC	50%
3 Oct, 12:15 UTC	48%
3 Oct, 08:48 UTC	40%
3 Oct, 05:10 UTC	40%
3 Oct, 04:24 UTC	48%
2 Oct, 22:57 UTC	52%
2 Oct, 21:05 UTC	50%
2 Oct, 20:58 UTC	41%
2 Oct, 19:36 UTC	58%
2 Oct, 19:16 UTC	46%
2 Oct, 18:13 UTC	43%
2 Oct, 16:57 UTC	41%
2 Oct, 16:23 UTC	42%
2 Oct, 15:59 UTC	32%
2 Oct, 15:16 UTC	43%
2 Oct, 14:35 UTC	43%
2 Oct, 13:55 UTC	32%
2 Oct, 08:32 UTC	41%
2 Oct, 08:09 UTC	32%
2 Oct, 03:55 UTC	34%
1 Oct, 22:57 UTC	38%
1 Oct, 21:37 UTC	42%
1 Oct, 19:48 UTC	40%
1 Oct, 17:38 UTC	35%
1 Oct, 16:59 UTC	34%
1 Oct, 15:00 UTC	35%
1 Oct, 14:21 UTC	34%
1 Oct, 13:46 UTC	31%
1 Oct, 13:06 UTC	35%
1 Oct, 09:59 UTC	42%
30 Sept, 19:01 UTC	43%
30 Sept, 17:28 UTC	40%
30 Sept, 16:59 UTC	42%
30 Sept, 04:13 UTC	43%
30 Sept, 03:42 UTC	43%
30 Sept, 02:28 UTC	41%
30 Sept, 01:01 UTC	45%
30 Sept, 00:03 UTC	44%
29 Sept, 22:38 UTC	57%
29 Sept, 21:17 UTC	40%
29 Sept, 20:42 UTC	57%
29 Sept, 20:18 UTC	49%
29 Sept, 07:48 UTC	37%
29 Sept, 05:53 UTC	42%
28 Sept, 19:18 UTC	57%
28 Sept, 11:55 UTC	33%
28 Sept, 02:48 UTC	61%
27 Sept, 21:08 UTC	32%
27 Sept, 20:36 UTC	31%
27 Sept, 19:05 UTC	32%
27 Sept, 16:44 UTC	63%
27 Sept, 13:55 UTC	64%
27 Sept, 10:15 UTC	42%
27 Sept, 05:43 UTC	64%
27 Sept, 01:17 UTC	62%
26 Sept, 23:00 UTC	55%
26 Sept, 21:58 UTC	54%
26 Sept, 19:16 UTC	65%
26 Sept, 15:23 UTC	66%
25 Sept, 20:11 UTC	64%
25 Sept, 19:39 UTC	63%
25 Sept, 17:20 UTC	36%
25 Sept, 06:03 UTC	38%
25 Sept, 05:02 UTC	64%
25 Sept, 04:11 UTC	65%
25 Sept, 02:13 UTC	66%
24 Sept, 21:25 UTC	67%
23 Sept, 20:54 UTC	0%

The story so far

7 publishers have covered this in 27 articles since 28 Sept 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 28 September at 18:18 UTC; Rolling Stone followed 21h 26m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 6 October at 21:23 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), The Guardian Sport (major outlet), Rolling Stone, CNET, SI Feed, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, feeds.bleacherreport.com.

3 prediction markets price this story:

Spain — the market puts it at 44%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 28 Jun 2027. The outcome is Yes if Spain wins the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League tournament. The outcome is No if any other team wins that specific title. Readers often mistake this for the current year's competition or confuse it with winning a single match rather than the entire championship.
Will Belgium win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? — the market puts it at 1%, with $130 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 14 Jun 2027. The "Yes" outcome occurs if Belgium wins the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League title. The "No" outcome applies if Belgium loses in any stage or if the tournament ends without a winner declared by June 13, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake the linked story about France and Italy for relevant data, but only the final winner of the Nations League matters.
Will France win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1? — the market puts it at 86%, with $2 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Dec 2026. France wins if it finishes first in Group A1 of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League. If teams tie for first place, UEFA’s official tiebreak procedure determines the winner. Readers often mistake a single match result, like Spain's recent victory over Croatia, as decisive; only the final group standings matter.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Spain at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

28 Sept, 18:18Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Spain vs Croatia: UEFA Nations League – Yamal, Modric, teams, form33%
29 Sept, 15:45Rolling Stone Spain vs. Croatia: How to Watch the UEFA Nations League Match37%▲4 points since the previous source
29 Sept, 15:59Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera LIVE: Spain vs Croatia – Nations League37%
29 Sept, 16:30CNET Watch UEFA Nations League Soccer: Livestream Spain vs. Croatia From Anywhere37%
29 Sept, 21:29Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Yamal stars as Spain thrash Croatia40%▲3 points since the previous source
29 Sept, 21:50The Guardian Sport Nations League roundup: Lamine Yamal sinks Croatia in Spain’s World Cup homecoming40%
30 Sept, 12:40Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Denmark vs Portugal: UEFA Nations League – Ronaldo, Hojlund, teams, form43%▲2 points since the previous source
1 Oct, 15:32Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera LIVE: Denmark vs Portugal – UEFA Nations League; Ronaldo latest35%▼8 points since the previous source
1 Oct, 15:45CNET Watch UEFA Nations League Soccer: Livestream Germany vs. Serbia From Anywhere35%
1 Oct, 15:45CNET Watch UEFA Nations League Soccer: Livestream Denmark vs. Portugal From Anywhere35%
Show 17 later sources
1. 1 Oct, 15:45SI Feed How to Watch Denmark vs. Portugal on TV, Live Stream35%
2. 1 Oct, 16:46CNET Watch UEFA Nations League Soccer: Livestream Greece vs. Netherlands From Anywhere35%
3. 1 Oct, 22:31Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera France vs Italy: UEFA Nations League – Zidane, Olise, Esposito, teams, form42%▲7 points since the previous source
4. 2 Oct, 05:49France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Nations League: Zidane returns to face Italy and the Stade de France34%▼8 points since the previous source
5. 2 Oct, 21:59Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Croatia vs England: UEFA Nations League – Kane, Modric, teams, form50%▲16 points since the previous source
6. 3 Oct, 00:00SI Feed Croatia vs. England—Nations League: Preview, Predictions and Lineups52%▲2 points since the previous source
7. 3 Oct, 02:00SI Feed Spain vs. Czechia—Nations League: Preview, Predictions and Lineups52%
8. 3 Oct, 13:00CNET Watch UEFA Nations League Soccer: Livestream Croatia vs. England From Anywhere for Free48%▼4 points since the previous source
9. 3 Oct, 15:30feeds.bleacherreport.com Croatia-England, Spain-Czechia and USMNT-Mexico Live Updates, Goals and Highlights (10/3)51%▲3 points since the previous source
10. 3 Oct, 15:45SI Feed How to Watch Spain vs. Czechia on TV, Live Stream51%
11. 3 Oct, 18:13Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Portugal vs Norway: UEFA Nations League – Ronaldo latest, Haaland, teams51%▼1 points since the previous source
12. 5 Oct, 17:15The Guardian Sport France v Belgium, Italy v Turkey, Northern Ireland v Georgia: Nations League – live37%▼13 points since the previous source
13. 6 Oct, 00:00SI Feed Croatia vs. Spain—Nations League: Preview, Predictions and Lineups50%▲13 points since the previous source
14. 6 Oct, 06:17Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Croatia vs Spain: UEFA Nations League – Yamal, Modric, head-to-head45%▼5 points since the previous source
15. 6 Oct, 15:47Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera LIVE: Croatia vs Spain – UEFA Nations League46%▲1 points since the previous source
16. 6 Oct, 16:00CNET Watch UEFA Nations League Soccer: Livestream Croatia vs. Spain From Anywhere46%
17. 6 Oct, 21:23Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Merino scores twice as Spain beat Croatia 2-1 in Nations League46%
NowCurrent odds44%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Show 21 more sources

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Kalshi Spain 44% +5 $4k 24hends 28 Jun 2027
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What's wrong
Polymarket Will Belgium win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? 1% $130 24hends 14 Jun 2027
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Polymarket Will France win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1? 86% −1 $2 24hends 2 Dec 2026
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What's wrong

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In this story

Spain
Croatia
Lamine Yamal
UEFA Nations League

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