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South Africa beat Australia to win third Test and series at Newlands

Simon Harmer takes six for 16 as South Africa defeat Australia by 176 runs in the final Test to clinch the three-match series 2-1.

5 publishers · 75 articles · first seen 9 Oct 2026 · updated 7d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Will the match end in a draw?
0%50%100%0%26 Oct, 17:28 UTCnowAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: South Africa hammer Australia as Harmer takes career best bowling of 6-16 · 31 Oct, 15:43 UTCThe Guardian Sport: Australia collapse on final day as Simon Harmer spins South Africa to series win · 31 Oct, 13:34 UTCThe Guardian Sport: South Africa v Australia: third men’s cricket Test, day five – live · 31 Oct, 08:05 UTCThe Guardian Sport: Australia set 288 to win after South African centurions turn the tide · 30 Oct, 16:40 UTCThe Guardian Sport: South Africa v Australia: third men’s cricket Test, day four – live · 30 Oct, 09:00 UTCThe Guardian Sport: Australia gain edge in Test decider after late Bavuma blow hurts South Africa · 29 Oct, 17:46 UTCThe Guardian Sport: South Africa v Australia: third men’s cricket Test, day three – live · 29 Oct, 08:05 UTCThe Guardian Sport: Carey and Inglis counterpunch to put Australia on top in South Africa · 28 Oct, 17:12 UTCThe Guardian Sport: South Africa v Australia: third men’s cricket Test, day two – live · 28 Oct, 07:45 UTCThe Guardian Sport: Australia fightback in rollercoaster start to deciding Test against South Africa · 27 Oct, 17:04 UTCThe Guardian Sport: South Africa v Australia: third men’s cricket Test, day one – live · 27 Oct, 08:41 UTCTimes of India: Australia hammered by Harmer in Cape Town as South Africa take series 2-1 · 31 Oct, 14:07 UTCBBC Sport: 'Un-Australian' - Warner tears into former side after SA charge to win · 31 Oct, 13:23 UTCSkySports: South Africa win decider over Aussies to take series and go top of Test rankings · 31 Oct, 13:15 UTCSkySports: Rickelton, Mulder hit tons as South Africa set Australia 288 to win decider · 30 Oct, 17:40 UTCBBC Sport: South Africa-Australia set for classic finale – what does history suggest could happen? · 30 Oct, 17:03 UTCBBC Sport: Careless dismissals give Australia route to series win · 29 Oct, 16:53 UTCTimes of India: Josh Inglis becomes first Australian cricketer to achieve this rare feat in all three formats · 29 Oct, 12:16 UTCSkySports: Inglis hits second Test ton as South Africa take narrow lead over Australia · 29 Oct, 11:53 UTCSkySports: Tourists push on through Inglis and Carey · 28 Oct, 19:37 UTCSkySports: Inglis, Carey dig in to put Australia on top against South Africa in third Test · 28 Oct, 13:36 UTCSkySports: Starc sparks Australia recovery as South Africa stumble after fast start · 27 Oct, 17:50 UTCBBC Sport: Australia roar to keep Cummins out of unwanted club... for now · 27 Oct, 17:10 UTCSkySports: South Africa vs Australia: Latest updates from deciding Test · 27 Oct, 08:25 UTCBBC Sport: Starc takes six as Australia bowl South Africa out for 329 - third Test scorecard · 27 Oct, 00:00 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 50 more published before price tracking began

Price data
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The story so far

5 publishers have covered this in 75 articles since 9 Oct 2026. The Guardian Sport published first, on 9 October at 06:58 UTC; SkySports followed 8h 10m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 31 October at 15:43 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Sport (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), SkySports, Times of India, BBC Sport.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Will the match end in a draw? — resolved “No” on 31 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the cricket match ends in a draw or tie with no winner declared. It resolves to No if either team wins, including decisions made by DLS/DRS or on-field tiebreaks like a Super Over. Readers often mistake the linked headline about a series-leveling victory for the resolution of this specific match, but only the final result of the October 27, 2026 fixture counts.
  • South Africa — the market puts it at 77%, closing 30 Jan 2028. South Africa must qualify for the men's cricket event at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics before that year begins. The market resolves to Yes if they secure this spot and No otherwise. Readers often mistake the current Test series result as relevant, but only Olympic qualification counts.
  • South Africa — the market puts it at 48%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 13 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if South Africa wins the 2027 Men's Rugby World Cup. It resolves to No if they do not win that specific tournament. Readers often mistake this for a bet on any single match, such as the linked series decider against Australia.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will the match end in a draw? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. The Guardian SportSouth Africa v Australia: first men’s cricket Test, day one – live—
  2. SkySportsSouth Africa's impressive bowlers halted by bad light as Australia battle—
  3. The Guardian SportRenshaw keeps Australia’s hopes intact against South Africa after Maddinson gamble fails—
  4. The Guardian SportSouth Africa v Australia: first men’s cricket Test, day two – live—
  5. SkySportsRecord-breaking Renshaw puts Australia on top in Durban—
  6. The Guardian SportMatt Renshaw’s epic 190 helps Australia turn tables on South Africa in Durban—
  7. Times of IndiaMatt Renshaw eclipses Phillip Hughes, rewrites record books with 190—
  8. The Guardian SportSouth Africa v Australia: first men’s cricket Test, day three – live—
  9. Times of IndiaMatt Renshaw breaks Virat Kohli’s decade-old record with stunning 190 in Durban—
  10. The Guardian SportRecord-breaking quartet put Australia in full control against South Africa—
  11. Show 65 later sources
    1. SkySportsCummins helps Australia take control against South Africa—
    2. The Guardian SportSouth Africa v Australia: first men’s cricket Test, day four – live—
    3. BBC SportRenshaw delivers again as Australia close on win—
    4. The Guardian SportRenshaw’s heroics leave South Africa reeling as Australia close on first Test victory—
    5. SkySportsRenshaw stars as Australia close in on first Test victory in Durban—
    6. The Guardian SportSouth Africa v Australia: first men’s cricket Test, day five – live—
    7. SkySportsHazlewood fires Australia to convincing first-Test win over South Africa—
    8. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraAustralia bowl out South Africa to win first Test in Durban—
    9. The Guardian SportJosh Hazlewood reminds Australia of his worth with 6-49 to see off South Africa—
    10. Times of IndiaHazlewood’s six-wicket haul takes him past Lee, equals Ishant and Zaheer—
    11. Times of IndiaWTC table: SA crash out of top two after Durban defeat; Where are India?—
    12. SkySportsConcern still for Labuschagne: What England learned from SA vs Aus first Test—
    13. BBC SportSouth Africa call on 'Aussie agitator' Breetzke—
    14. SkySportsSouth Africa look to re-establish Test credentials after Australia mauling—
    15. The Guardian SportSouth Africa v Australia: second men’s cricket Test, day one delayed by rain – live—
    16. SkySportsSouth Africa stutter on rain-hit day one against Australia—
    17. The Guardian SportAustralia’s Boland damages South Africa in brief respite from rain—
    18. The Guardian SportSouth Africa v Australia: second men’s cricket Test, day two – live—
    19. SkySportsAustralia strike late on rain-hit second day against South Africa—
    20. BBC SportBoland exposes South Africa's frailties to give Robinson blueprint—
    21. The Guardian SportScott Boland shines against South Africa but rain dominates again—
    22. The Guardian SportSouth Africa v Australia: second men’s cricket Test, day three – live—
    23. The Guardian SportAustralia on the back foot as Bavuma plays captain’s innings for South Africa—
    24. BBC SportBavuma epic drags SA back into Test - do they have time to beat Australia?—
    25. SkySportsBavuma's Test-best ton has South Africa in dominant position vs Australia—
    26. Times of IndiaDale Steyn’s 18-year-old record falls as Harmer scripts history against Australia—
    27. Times of IndiaBavuma enters record books with captain’s knock as SA produce great fightback—
    28. The Guardian SportSouth Africa v Australia: second men’s cricket Test, day four – live—
    29. SkySportsAustralia skittled for 99 as stunning South Africa comeback continues—
    30. SkySportsJansen claims five-wicket haul as Aussie wickets TUMBLE—
    31. SkySportsAustralia skittled for 99 as South Africa eye innings-victory—
    32. The Guardian SportSouth Africa v Australia: second men’s cricket Test, day five – live—
    33. BBC SportSouth Africa complete famous win over Australia—
    34. SkySportsSouth Africa seal emphatic win over Australia to level series—
    35. The Guardian SportSouth Africa beat Boland and weather to force series decider against Australia—
    36. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraSouth Africa crush Australia by an innings to level cricket Test series—
    37. Times of IndiaWhy Bavuma turned away during Smith's catch? SA captain explains viral reaction—
    38. The Guardian SportWinds of change are coming for Australia as selection storm brews in South Africa—
    39. Times of India'We can make the final again': Markram outlines South Africa’s WTC ambition—
    40. SkySportsCareers on the line for Australia in deciding South Africa Test?—
    41. BBC SportStarc takes six as Australia bowl South Africa out for 329 - third Test scorecard10%
    42. SkySportsSouth Africa vs Australia: Latest updates from deciding Test10%
    43. The Guardian SportSouth Africa v Australia: third men’s cricket Test, day one – live10%
    44. The Guardian SportAustralia fightback in rollercoaster start to deciding Test against South Africa10%
    45. BBC SportAustralia roar to keep Cummins out of unwanted club... for now10%
    46. SkySportsStarc sparks Australia recovery as South Africa stumble after fast start12%▲2 points since the previous source
    47. The Guardian SportSouth Africa v Australia: third men’s cricket Test, day two – live13%▲1 points since the previous source
    48. SkySportsInglis, Carey dig in to put Australia on top against South Africa in third Test11%▼2 points since the previous source
    49. The Guardian SportCarey and Inglis counterpunch to put Australia on top in South Africa16%▲5 points since the previous source
    50. SkySportsTourists push on through Inglis and Carey16%
    51. The Guardian SportSouth Africa v Australia: third men’s cricket Test, day three – live16%
    52. SkySportsInglis hits second Test ton as South Africa take narrow lead over Australia16%
    53. Times of IndiaJosh Inglis becomes first Australian cricketer to achieve this rare feat in all three formats16%
    54. BBC SportCareless dismissals give Australia route to series win16%
    55. The Guardian SportAustralia gain edge in Test decider after late Bavuma blow hurts South Africa7%▼9 points since the previous source
    56. The Guardian SportSouth Africa v Australia: third men’s cricket Test, day four – live9%▲2 points since the previous source
    57. The Guardian SportAustralia set 288 to win after South African centurions turn the tide15%▲6 points since the previous source
    58. BBC SportSouth Africa-Australia set for classic finale – what does history suggest could happen?15%
    59. SkySportsRickelton, Mulder hit tons as South Africa set Australia 288 to win decider17%▲2 points since the previous source
    60. The Guardian SportSouth Africa v Australia: third men’s cricket Test, day five – live14%▼3 points since the previous source
    61. SkySportsSouth Africa win decider over Aussies to take series and go top of Test rankings5%▼10 points since the previous source
    62. BBC Sport'Un-Australian' - Warner tears into former side after SA charge to win5%
    63. The Guardian SportAustralia collapse on final day as Simon Harmer spins South Africa to series win3%▼2 points since the previous source
    64. Times of IndiaAustralia hammered by Harmer in Cape Town as South Africa take series 2-10%▼3 points since the previous source
    65. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraSouth Africa hammer Australia as Harmer takes career best bowling of 6-160%
  12. Market resolved: No

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. South Africa hammer Australia as Harmer takes career best bowling of 6-16 Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  2. Australia collapse on final day as Simon Harmer spins South Africa to series win The Guardian Sport ·
  3. South Africa v Australia: third men’s cricket Test, day five – live The Guardian Sport ·
  4. Australia set 288 to win after South African centurions turn the tide The Guardian Sport ·
  5. South Africa v Australia: third men’s cricket Test, day four – live The Guardian Sport ·
  6. Australia gain edge in Test decider after late Bavuma blow hurts South Africa The Guardian Sport ·
Show 69 more sources
  1. South Africa v Australia: third men’s cricket Test, day three – live The Guardian Sport ·
  2. Carey and Inglis counterpunch to put Australia on top in South Africa The Guardian Sport ·
  3. South Africa v Australia: third men’s cricket Test, day two – live The Guardian Sport ·
  4. Australia fightback in rollercoaster start to deciding Test against South Africa The Guardian Sport ·
  5. South Africa v Australia: third men’s cricket Test, day one – live The Guardian Sport ·
  6. Winds of change are coming for Australia as selection storm brews in South Africa The Guardian Sport ·
  7. South Africa crush Australia by an innings to level cricket Test series Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  8. South Africa beat Boland and weather to force series decider against Australia The Guardian Sport ·
  9. South Africa v Australia: second men’s cricket Test, day five – live The Guardian Sport ·
  10. South Africa v Australia: second men’s cricket Test, day four – live The Guardian Sport ·
  11. Australia on the back foot as Bavuma plays captain’s innings for South Africa The Guardian Sport ·
  12. South Africa v Australia: second men’s cricket Test, day three – live The Guardian Sport ·
  13. Scott Boland shines against South Africa but rain dominates again The Guardian Sport ·
  14. South Africa v Australia: second men’s cricket Test, day two – live The Guardian Sport ·
  15. Australia’s Boland damages South Africa in brief respite from rain The Guardian Sport ·
  16. South Africa v Australia: second men’s cricket Test, day one delayed by rain – live The Guardian Sport ·
  17. Josh Hazlewood reminds Australia of his worth with 6-49 to see off South Africa The Guardian Sport ·
  18. Australia bowl out South Africa to win first Test in Durban Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  19. South Africa v Australia: first men’s cricket Test, day five – live The Guardian Sport ·
  20. Renshaw’s heroics leave South Africa reeling as Australia close on first Test victory The Guardian Sport ·
  21. South Africa v Australia: first men’s cricket Test, day four – live The Guardian Sport ·
  22. Record-breaking quartet put Australia in full control against South Africa The Guardian Sport ·
  23. South Africa v Australia: first men’s cricket Test, day three – live The Guardian Sport ·
  24. Matt Renshaw’s epic 190 helps Australia turn tables on South Africa in Durban The Guardian Sport ·
  25. South Africa v Australia: first men’s cricket Test, day two – live The Guardian Sport ·
  26. Renshaw keeps Australia’s hopes intact against South Africa after Maddinson gamble fails The Guardian Sport ·
  27. South Africa v Australia: first men’s cricket Test, day one – live The Guardian Sport ·
  28. Australia hammered by Harmer in Cape Town as South Africa take series 2-1 Times of India
  29. 'Un-Australian' - Warner tears into former side after SA charge to win BBC Sport
  30. South Africa win decider over Aussies to take series and go top of Test rankings SkySports
  31. Rickelton, Mulder hit tons as South Africa set Australia 288 to win decider SkySports
  32. South Africa-Australia set for classic finale – what does history suggest could happen? BBC Sport
  33. Careless dismissals give Australia route to series win BBC Sport
  34. Josh Inglis becomes first Australian cricketer to achieve this rare feat in all three formats Times of India
  35. Inglis hits second Test ton as South Africa take narrow lead over Australia SkySports
  36. Tourists push on through Inglis and Carey SkySports
  37. Inglis, Carey dig in to put Australia on top against South Africa in third Test SkySports
  38. Starc sparks Australia recovery as South Africa stumble after fast start SkySports
  39. Australia roar to keep Cummins out of unwanted club... for now BBC Sport
  40. South Africa vs Australia: Latest updates from deciding Test SkySports
  41. Starc takes six as Australia bowl South Africa out for 329 - third Test scorecard BBC Sport
  42. Careers on the line for Australia in deciding South Africa Test? SkySports
  43. 'We can make the final again': Markram outlines South Africa’s WTC ambition Times of India
  44. Why Bavuma turned away during Smith's catch? SA captain explains viral reaction Times of India
  45. South Africa seal emphatic win over Australia to level series SkySports
  46. South Africa complete famous win over Australia BBC Sport
  47. Australia skittled for 99 as South Africa eye innings-victory SkySports
  48. Jansen claims five-wicket haul as Aussie wickets TUMBLE SkySports
  49. Australia skittled for 99 as stunning South Africa comeback continues SkySports
  50. Bavuma enters record books with captain’s knock as SA produce great fightback Times of India
  51. Dale Steyn’s 18-year-old record falls as Harmer scripts history against Australia Times of India
  52. Bavuma's Test-best ton has South Africa in dominant position vs Australia SkySports
  53. Bavuma epic drags SA back into Test - do they have time to beat Australia? BBC Sport
  54. Boland exposes South Africa's frailties to give Robinson blueprint BBC Sport
  55. Australia strike late on rain-hit second day against South Africa SkySports
  56. South Africa stutter on rain-hit day one against Australia SkySports
  57. South Africa look to re-establish Test credentials after Australia mauling SkySports
  58. South Africa call on 'Aussie agitator' Breetzke BBC Sport
  59. Concern still for Labuschagne: What England learned from SA vs Aus first Test SkySports
  60. WTC table: SA crash out of top two after Durban defeat; Where are India? Times of India
  61. Hazlewood’s six-wicket haul takes him past Lee, equals Ishant and Zaheer Times of India
  62. Hazlewood fires Australia to convincing first-Test win over South Africa SkySports
  63. Renshaw stars as Australia close in on first Test victory in Durban SkySports
  64. Renshaw delivers again as Australia close on win BBC Sport
  65. Cummins helps Australia take control against South Africa SkySports
  66. Matt Renshaw breaks Virat Kohli’s decade-old record with stunning 190 in Durban Times of India
  67. Matt Renshaw eclipses Phillip Hughes, rewrites record books with 190 Times of India
  68. Record-breaking Renshaw puts Australia on top in Durban SkySports
  69. South Africa's impressive bowlers halted by bad light as Australia battle SkySports

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Resolved Will the match end in a draw? No 7d ago

    The market favoured No at 76% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi South Africa 77% $0 24hends 30 Jan 2028

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi South Africa 48% +8 $1k 24hends 13 Nov 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

Have your say

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