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South Africa's ANC faces historic lows in local elections

Early results show the ruling party falling to roughly 32 percent of the vote amid voter anger over service delivery failures.

8 publishers · 21 articles · first seen 2 Nov 2026 · updated 19h ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

First reported by Bloomberg Markets, 4h 28m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first

The odds

How the odds moved · Above 1.76M
0%50%100%84%4 Nov, 10:48 UTCnowThe Guardian: ANC faces bruising defeat in South African local elections with 80% of ballots counted · 6 Nov, 12:48 UTCABC News: South Africa's ruling ANC faces huge decline in support, early election results show · 6 Nov, 11:01 UTCAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: South Africa’s ANC on track for new lows in local polls · 5 Nov, 21:48 UTCNews Feed: South Africa’s incredible shrinking ANC · 5 Nov, 17:09 UTCNews Feed: South Africa’s ANC faces sharply reduced share of vote in local elections · 5 Nov, 09:11 UTCAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Vote counting underway in critical South Africa elections · 5 Nov, 02:43 UTCBloomberg.com: South Africa Election: Council Votes Put Coalition Politics to the Test · 4 Nov, 13:00 UTCFrance 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines: South Africa's ANC party on track to face 'nightmare' losses in municipal elections · 6 Nov, 07:15 UTCBreaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa: South Africans eager to vote as local elections put failing services in focus · 5 Nov, 10:48 UTCBreaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa: South Africans vote in key municipal elections · 4 Nov, 21:26 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 11 more published before price tracking began

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now84%
4 Nov, 10:48 UTC84%

The story so far

8 publishers have covered this in 21 articles since 2 Nov 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 2 November at 05:00 UTC; ABC News followed 4h 29m later. The most recent article, from The Guardian, appeared on 6 November at 12:48 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg.com (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, Deutsche Welle, BBC News.

One prediction market prices this story:

  • Above 1.76M — the market puts it at 84%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to "Yes" if the total vote count for all participants in the South Carolina Senate General Election exceeds 1,760,000. It resolves to "No" if that total is 1,760,000 or fewer. Readers often mistakenly assume the linked story about South African local elections determines the outcome, but only votes from the South Carolina Senate race count.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Above 1.76M at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. Bloomberg MarketsSouth Africa’s Low-Key Municipal Polls Pose Risks for Investors—
  2. ABC NewsSouth Africans to vote in key local elections seen as a tough test for ruling ANC—
  3. News FeedSouth Africa’s opposition bets on ‘daft’ stunts to unseat ANC in Johannesburg—
  4. France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesSouth Africans demand security and basic services as they vote in local elections—
  5. Deutsche WelleWhy South Africa's local elections matter—
  6. BBC NewsANC under pressure to reverse South Africa decline—
  7. The GuardianANC faces anger over poor services as South Africans vote in local elections—
  8. ABC NewsSouth Africans vote in local elections that could continue decline of ANC—
  9. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraSouth Africans vote in local elections seen as test for embattled ANC—
  10. Deutsche WelleSouth Africans vote in local elections in test for ANC—
  11. Show 11 later sources
    1. France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines30 million South Africans registered to vote across nine provinces—
    2. Bloomberg.comSouth Africa Election: Council Votes Put Coalition Politics to the Test84%
    3. Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan AfricaSouth Africans vote in key municipal elections84%
    4. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraVote counting underway in critical South Africa elections84%
    5. News FeedSouth Africa’s ANC faces sharply reduced share of vote in local elections84%
    6. Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan AfricaSouth Africans eager to vote as local elections put failing services in focus84%
    7. News FeedSouth Africa’s incredible shrinking ANC84%
    8. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraSouth Africa’s ANC on track for new lows in local polls84%
    9. France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesSouth Africa's ANC party on track to face 'nightmare' losses in municipal elections84%
    10. ABC NewsSouth Africa's ruling ANC faces huge decline in support, early election results show84%
    11. The GuardianANC faces bruising defeat in South African local elections with 80% of ballots counted84%
  12. Current odds84%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. ANC faces bruising defeat in South African local elections with 80% of ballots counted The Guardian ·
  2. South Africa's ruling ANC faces huge decline in support, early election results show ABC News ·
  3. South Africa’s ANC on track for new lows in local polls Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  4. South Africa’s incredible shrinking ANC News Feed ·
  5. South Africa’s ANC faces sharply reduced share of vote in local elections News Feed ·
  6. Vote counting underway in critical South Africa elections Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
Show 15 more sources
  1. South Africa Election: Council Votes Put Coalition Politics to the Test Bloomberg.com ·
  2. South Africans vote in local elections seen as test for embattled ANC Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  3. South Africans vote in local elections that could continue decline of ANC ABC News ·
  4. ANC faces anger over poor services as South Africans vote in local elections The Guardian ·
  5. South Africa’s opposition bets on ‘daft’ stunts to unseat ANC in Johannesburg News Feed ·
  6. South Africans to vote in key local elections seen as a tough test for ruling ANC ABC News ·
  7. South Africa’s Low-Key Municipal Polls Pose Risks for Investors Bloomberg Markets ·
  8. South Africa's ANC party on track to face 'nightmare' losses in municipal elections France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
  9. South Africans eager to vote as local elections put failing services in focus Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa
  10. South Africans vote in key municipal elections Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa
  11. 30 million South Africans registered to vote across nine provinces France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
  12. South Africans vote in local elections in test for ANC Deutsche Welle
  13. ANC under pressure to reverse South Africa decline BBC News
  14. Why South Africa's local elections matter Deutsche Welle
  15. South Africans demand security and basic services as they vote in local elections France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Above 1.76M 84% $0 24hends 3 Nov 2027

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In this story

  • African National Congress
  • Democratic Alliance
  • South Africa
  • Johannesburg
  • Nelson Mandela

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