Senate GOP PAC to Invest $14M in Kansas Senate Race
The Senate Leadership Fund plans to spend $14 million on ads supporting incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall.
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The odds
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Price data
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| 4 Nov, 04:33 UTC | 0% |
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The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 5 Oct 2026. The Hill published first, on 5 October at 15:20 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Roger Marshall — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a Republican is sworn in as a U.S. Senator from Kansas for the term starting in 2027. It resolves to No if that specific condition does not occur. Readers often mistake the linked news story about campaign spending for the actual event required for resolution, but only the official swearing-in matters.
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if a Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Kansas Senate election, including any run-offs. The No outcome applies if a Republican or independent candidate wins. Readers often mistake the resolution deadline for election night, but the market waits until the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate.
- Kansas — the market puts it at 25%, with $200 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the winner of the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas wins by a margin of 0 to 5 percentage points, inclusive. It resolves to No if that margin exceeds 5 percentage points. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the final certification of results.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Roger Marshall No 3d ago
The market favoured No at 61% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes 3d ago
The market favoured Yes at 62% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Kansas 25% −40
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Senate Leadership Fund
- Roger Marshall