Expedition Fails to Find Amelia Earhart's Plane on Remote Pacific Atoll
Researchers conclude an object spotted near Nikumaroro was likely trees, leaving the mystery of the aviator's disappearance unsolved.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 2 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 05:41 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Oct, 02:42 UTC | 12% |
| 18 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 10% |
| 18 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 12% |
| 18 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 14% |
| 17 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 7% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Amelia Earhart’s plane found by December 31, 2026? respond.
The story so far
6 publishers have covered this in 10 articles since 15 Oct 2026. CBS News published first, on 15 October at 14:35 UTC; The Guardian followed 19h 34m later. The most recent article, from The Hill, appeared on 19 October at 18:20 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: CBS News (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), BBC News, Sky News.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Amelia Earhart’s plane found by December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 3%, with $187 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to "Yes" if an official public announcement confirms that a specific object is wreckage from Amelia Earhart's Lockheed Electra 10E before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The confirmation must come from the investigating team or institution and be based on physical evidence, not just resemblance to the aircraft.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Amelia Earhart’s plane found by December 31, 2026? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- CBS NewsScientists to dredge possible location of Amelia Earhart's plane—
- The GuardianMuseum releases historical photos of island where Amelia Earhart may have crashed—
- CBS NewsAmelia Earhart and her plane vanished in 1937. A team is scouring a remote island for evidence.7%
- BBC NewsSearch for Amelia Earhart's plane resumes after stormy weather7%
- The Guardian USAmelia Earhart researchers leave remote atoll empty-handed after ‘plane debris’ found to be a clump of trees12%▲5 points since the previous source
- BBC NewsPossible wreckage of Amelia Earhart's plane likely to be trees, say researchers12%
- The New York TimesWhat to Know About the Search for Amelia Earhart’s Plane12%
- CBS NewsExpedition to find Amelia Earhart's missing plane comes up empty12%
- Sky NewsObject thought to be Amelia Earhart’s missing plane likely just 'large trees', researchers find12%
- The HillExpedition fails to find Amelia Earhart's plane on remote island in Western Pacific12%
- Current odds3%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Expedition fails to find Amelia Earhart's plane on remote island in Western Pacific The Hill ·
- Expedition to find Amelia Earhart's missing plane comes up empty CBS News ·
- What to Know About the Search for Amelia Earhart’s Plane The New York Times ·
- Amelia Earhart researchers leave remote atoll empty-handed after ‘plane debris’ found to be a clump of trees The Guardian US ·
- Amelia Earhart and her plane vanished in 1937. A team is scouring a remote island for evidence. CBS News ·
- Museum releases historical photos of island where Amelia Earhart may have crashed The Guardian ·
Show 4 more sources
- Scientists to dredge possible location of Amelia Earhart's plane CBS News ·
- Object thought to be Amelia Earhart’s missing plane likely just 'large trees', researchers find Sky News
- Possible wreckage of Amelia Earhart's plane likely to be trees, say researchers BBC News
- Search for Amelia Earhart's plane resumes after stormy weather BBC News
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Amelia Earhart’s plane found by December 31, 2026? 3%
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In this story
- Amelia Earhart
- Nikumaroro
- Steve Schultz
- Purdue University