Russian Satellite Closes to Within Three Miles of US Radar Craft Aiding Ukraine
Kosmos 2612 maneuvered from over 200 miles to extreme proximity with the ICEYE-X36 satellite, which supports Ukrainian operations.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 2% |
| 14 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 1% |
| 13 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 3% |
| 13 Oct, 04:15 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 17:00 UTC | 0% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Russia respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 19 Oct 2026. Latest from Tom's Hardware published first, on 19 October at 10:00 UTC; Ars Technica followed 10h 54m later. The most recent article, from News - South China Morning Post, appeared on 21 October at 02:58 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Ars Technica (major outlet), Latest from Tom's Hardware, News - South China Morning Post.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Russia — the market puts it at 2%, closing 1 Jan 2031. The outcome is Yes if Russia launches a crewed lunar mission before January 1, 2031, and no other country has done so first. The outcome is No if another nation achieves this milestone first or if Russia fails to launch a crewed mission by that date. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the year in which the launch occurs, but the rule specifies January 1, 2031, as the absolute cutoff.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Russia at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Latest from Tom's HardwareRussian military satellite closes from 200 miles to 3 miles of US radar craft aiding Ukraine1%
- Ars TechnicaRussian spacecraft maneuvers in "extreme proximity" to satellite used by Ukraine1%
- News - South China Morning PostRussian satellite’s close approach to European spacecraft highlights orbital risks2%
- Current odds2%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Russian spacecraft maneuvers in "extreme proximity" to satellite used by Ukraine Ars Technica ·
- Russian satellite’s close approach to European spacecraft highlights orbital risks News - South China Morning Post
- Russian military satellite closes from 200 miles to 3 miles of US radar craft aiding Ukraine Latest from Tom's Hardware
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Russia 2%
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