Nithya Raman Leads Karen Bass in LA Mayoral Race as Writers Guild Endorses Her
A new poll shows Nithya Raman leading incumbent Karen Bass, while the Writers Guild of America West endorses her campaign.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 20:49 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 98% |
| 5 Nov, 07:02 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 06:26 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Nov, 02:54 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 23:32 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 22:13 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 20:52 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 19:42 UTC | 85% |
| 4 Nov, 16:27 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 14:01 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 13:17 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Nov, 10:58 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 08:38 UTC | 77% |
| 4 Nov, 07:41 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Nov, 06:50 UTC | 80% |
| 4 Nov, 06:07 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 60% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 44% |
| 4 Nov, 04:33 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Nov, 03:05 UTC | 40% |
| 1 Nov, 17:49 UTC | 33% |
| 29 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 39% |
| 28 Oct, 22:46 UTC | 35% |
| 28 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 12:04 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 44% |
| 28 Oct, 03:56 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Oct, 13:47 UTC | 50% |
| 25 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 49% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 70% |
| 23 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 48% |
| 22 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 44% |
| 21 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 46% |
| 21 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 38% |
| 21 Oct, 03:43 UTC | 45% |
| 20 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 50% |
| 17 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 51% |
| 14 Oct, 12:33 UTC | 47% |
| 14 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 52% |
| 14 Oct, 07:43 UTC | 53% |
| 12 Oct, 15:14 UTC | 50% |
| 10 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 60% |
| 10 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 56% |
| 8 Oct, 17:42 UTC | 63% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 64% |
| 7 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 65% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 66% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 62% |
| 30 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 59% |
| 30 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 62% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 61% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 68% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 52% |
| 23 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 39% |
| 22 Sept, 15:39 UTC | 42% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Nithya Raman, ≥2% respond.
The story so far
5 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 23 Sept 2026. The Hill published first, on 23 September at 16:44 UTC; Fox News Politics followed 3h 31m later. The most recent article, from The A.V. Club, appeared on 25 September at 20:30 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), Variety (major outlet), Fox News Politics, Deadline, The A.V. Club.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Nithya Raman, ≥2% — the market puts it at 99%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if Nithya Raman wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin of at least 2%. The outcome is No if she loses or wins by less than 2%. Readers often mistake the linked poll results for the final election result.
- Karen Bass, ≥4% — resolved “No” on 6 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if Karen Bass wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin of at least 4% but less than 100%. The outcome is No if her winning margin is less than 4% or if she loses the election. Readers often mistake the linked poll for the final result, but only the official election results determine the resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Nithya Raman, ≥2% at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The HillBass trails Raman in Los Angeles mayor's race: Poll42%
- Fox News PoliticsSpencer Pratt warns 'good luck LA' after new poll vindicates his stunning prediction39%▼3 points since the previous source
- DeadlineWriters Guild Of America West Endorses Nithya Raman For Los Angeles Mayor52%▲13 points since the previous source
- VarietyL.A. Mayoral Candidate Nithya Raman Turns to Microdramas to Power Youth Vote52%
- The A.V. ClubMicrodramas have officially reached the "co-opted by politicians" level of cultural ubiquity52%
- Current odds99%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- L.A. Mayoral Candidate Nithya Raman Turns to Microdramas to Power Youth Vote Variety ·
- Bass trails Raman in Los Angeles mayor's race: Poll The Hill ·
- Microdramas have officially reached the "co-opted by politicians" level of cultural ubiquity The A.V. Club
- Writers Guild Of America West Endorses Nithya Raman For Los Angeles Mayor Deadline
- Spencer Pratt warns 'good luck LA' after new poll vindicates his stunning prediction Fox News Politics
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Nithya Raman, ≥2% 99%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Karen Bass, ≥4% No 19h ago
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
Have your say
Email me when the odds move
In this story
- Nithya Raman
- Karen Bass
- Writers Guild of America West
- University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies