Karen Bass, ≥4%
Implied probability 68%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 68% |
| 25 Sept, 04:11 UTC | 68% |
| 24 Sept, 15:25 UTC | 24% |
| 23 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Sept, 15:39 UTC | 37% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Karen Bass wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin of at least 4% but less than 100%. The outcome is No if her winning margin is less than 4% or if she loses the election. Readers often mistake the linked poll for the final result, but only the official election results determine the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 68%
- No 32%