OpenAI in Early Talks to Buy Security Firm Trail of Bits
The AI developer is negotiating to acquire the cybersecurity startup as it expands its security capabilities.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 89% |
| 11 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 89% |
| 11 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 85% |
| 9 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 89% |
| 1 Oct, 02:21 UTC | 90% |
| 30 Sept, 19:17 UTC | 85% |
| 30 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 90% |
| 29 Sept, 23:54 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 90% |
| 25 Sept, 15:57 UTC | 85% |
| 25 Sept, 01:26 UTC | 91% |
| 24 Sept, 17:42 UTC | 85% |
| 24 Sept, 10:35 UTC | 91% |
| 23 Sept, 07:32 UTC | 85% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 13 Oct 2026. theinformation.com published first, on 13 October at 22:07 UTC; Protos followed 19h 13m later. The most recent article, from Protos, appeared on 14 October at 17:20 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: theinformation.com, Protos.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Information Technology — the market puts it at 89%, closing 11 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI is officially classified in the Information Technology sector. It resolves to No if that classification does not happen. Readers often mistake this for a prediction about OpenAI's actions rather than its corporate sector assignment.
- OpenAI — the market puts it at 3%, with $113 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if OpenAI publicly confirms an initial public offering before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if that confirmation does not happen by the deadline. Readers often mistake news about other companies like GlobalFoundries or TSMC as relevant to this specific market.
- Before 2027 — the market puts it at 15%, with $96 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if OpenAI raises the price of ChatGPT Pro or Plus between December 19, 2024, and January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if no such price increase occurs within that window. Readers often mistake the start date, which is fixed at December 19, 2024, rather than an earlier announcement or rumor.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Information Technology 89%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi OpenAI 3% +2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before 2027 15%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- OpenAI
- Trail of Bits